analysis

Over the past ten years, opinions have become much more relaxed about questions of independence. This poll is another indication that talking about independence is no longer an outrageous, outlandish thing.

The reality of it is dawning, but at the same time that changes the quality and the parameters of the debate. The more the reality of independence becomes imaginable, the more people will want answers – what kind of Scottish army there will be, how many army bases will there be, will firms and concerns have their headquarters in Scotland or will they move then down south? What about European Union membership and will there be any obstacle to that?

The opposition arguments about the riders of the apocalypse coming with the SNP were deflated in 2007 when the SNP got a seat more than Labour in the Scottish Parliament and managed minority government for four years. Scotland did not collapse – apocalypse did not take place. I think some people in the opposition have not realised that there is not much mileage left in just saying Scotland would be overburdened with debt and that sort of thing.

At the same time, we have also had a softening of the position, even on the SNP side, in the form of a debate that is only now beginning in earnest, about what independence will actually mean.

It dawns more and more that it is not an either/or option – full union or total separation. There are all kind of linkages that would remain. That also softens opinion towards independence, by saying it might not be as radical as first envisaged. On the other hand, a quarter of people still do not know if they will vote yes or no and that is a significant number.

The real debate has not started yet on what independence means in bare figures. There are no answers to the nitty gritty, and so many imponderables over the next few years. The SNP is implementing a lot of the cuts and how will that reflect on its popularity in government? But the opposition’s response to the SNP government of 2007-11 and its absolute majority now, has not come to terms with that new situation, there is no doubt.

l Paddy Bort is a lecturer in Scottish society and culture at the University of Edinburgh’s Institute of Governance.