A narrow majority - 53 per cent - would back independence in the event of another vote tomorrow, according to the Ipsos Mori poll for STV. Support for staying in the UK is down to 44 per cent, with 3 per cent undecided.
It also found that the SNP is on course for a sweeping victory in next year’s Holyrood election.
It comes almost a year since the independence referendum when 55 per cent of people voted to remain in the UK, while 45 per cent opted for independence. It is the first poll since that vote which suggests a Yes vote would now win.
The 1,002 participants were polled between Monday and Sunday last week. And half said they would back a second referendum being held in the next five years and 58 per cent in the next ten.
It will heighten the pressure on Nicola Sturgeon to reveal if she will include a commitment to another referendum in her manifesto for next year’s Holyrood vote.
The Nationalists are poised to seize another majority next May with 55 per cent of the constituency vote and 55 per cent of list votes. It means the SNP is on course for 74 out of 129 MSPs.
The poll makes woeful reading for new Labour leader Kezia Dugdale with the party set for an even worse performance than the last election four years ago with just 20 per cent on the constituency and the list. This would leave the party with 26 MSPs, down from their current 37.
The Liberal Democrats would gain an MSP, up to six, and the Conservatives would remain the same at 15. The Green party would see gains in both votes leaving them with eight MSPs, up from their current two.