Police officers face axe as crisis widens

SCOTLAND'S police forces have issued a stark warning that they will have to cut the number of officers unless more funding can be found.

The largest police force, Strathclyde, is facing an "absolutely dire" funding gap of up to 34.7 million in 2010-11, it said. By 2013-14, it could hit 66m.

After a meeting yesterday, the Strathclyde Police Authority (SPA), which is responsible for the budget, said: "In the likelihood there is a deficit, it's correct there will be an impact on personnel and police staff."

The Lothian and Borders and Grampian forces echoed that view and said cuts to key services were a possibility.

An ultimatum has now gone out to justice secretary Kenny MacAskill: come up with tens of millions of pounds or we will have to cut personnel, possibly including front-line officers. The SNP Scottish Government is trying to increase the number of police officers by 1,000 following a deal with the Conservatives.

At the SPA meeting, Strathclyde Chief Constable Stephen House said, at best, the funding gap would stand at 12.4m next year – and could be much worse.

The forecast shortfall is calculated on the basis of the highest and lowest amounts of grant the police authority predicts it will receive from councils in 2010-11. The shortfall comes because the increase in the grant will not match inflationary rises in costs and, in particular, an agreed pay rise for staff of 2.5 per cent.

After the meeting, SPA convener Paul Rooney said the police were different from other public-sector bodies, because a large proportion of the force's budget is spent on personnel.

He said: "The distinction for the police authority is the large proportion of personnel making up the budget – 92 per cent. That's nowhere near the figure for local government. It means that, if we have to make cuts, it's quite likely that personnel will have to be looked at."

Iain Whyte, convener of the Lothian and Borders Police Authority, warned the problems could see Mr MacAskill's plans for recruiting an extra 1,000 officers come to nought, even though he has provided guaranteed money.

Mr Whyte told The Scotsman: "Strathclyde is facing much worse problems, because it is the biggest police force. However, I have had indications that we are facing a shortfall of millions too.

"This means we could be facing the ridiculous situation that the Scottish Government is giving us money to fund extra officers, but they are making no difference to overall numbers because we cannot afford to replace the ones who leave us or retire."

Martin Greig, the convener of the Grampian Police Authority, said that his force already suffered from in-built underfunding because less money per head of population was distributed to the North-east.

"This means that we have little flexibility – we have already successfully trimmed much of our excess fat," he said. "If we get what we are predicting, then we will not be able to afford to maintain the number of extra officers we have managed to recruit in recent years."

Their concerns were accompanied by a shot across the bows from the Association of Chief Police Officers of Scotland (Acpos), with a spokesman warning that there "is a limit to the amount of efficiency savings" forces can make.

The crisis has already provoked a stark warning from the Conservatives, who struck a deal with the SNP in 2008 to support the Scottish Government's budget on the proviso that police numbers would increase by 1,000 between 2007 and 2011.

The pledge had been in the SNP manifesto, but had been rolled back to 500 before the budget negotiations.

The Tories' community safety spokesman, John Lamont, said: "This is very worrying. Scottish Conservatives secured the funding for 1,000 extra police officers across the country, as a condition of our support at the last two budgets. The Scottish Government must ensure these conditions are met. We need these extra police officers to protect our communities and deliver effective justice."

Labour's justice spokesman, Richard Baker, said: "Kenny MacAskill is responsible for forcing Scotland's police into the worst budget crisis in decades. The news from Strathclyde Police is very bleak, and there is only one man to blame and that's the justice secretary."

However, the Scottish Government accused police authorities of coming up with inaccurate predictions and insisted it was providing record funding, which will see 1,000 extra officers in place in the lifetime of this parliament.

A spokesman said: "(We] are investing a record 23 billion from 2008-10 to ensure that local authorities have the resources they need to deliver local services."

Thin bottom line: options for arresting the financial slide

Staff cuts

More than 90 per cent of police force costs comes from salaries and an obvious way to save money is a recruitment freeze or redundancies. It has been suggested that civilian staff are most vulnerable.

More funding

The preferred solution for the police authorities is for the Scottish Government and local authorities to come up with more money to help bail out the forces. However, this seems unlikely.

Efficiency savings

The police forces. along with other public bodies. are supposed to make 2 per cent efficiency savings each year. But to meet the shortfall the police authorities are likely to have to make even more savings. They claim there is "only so much fat that can be trimmed off".

End the frills and get others to pay

Another suggestion is that police stop providing free policing for major events, especially commercial ones.

One item agreed was to get football clubs to pay for policing, while concert organisers and even march and demonstration organisers may be asked to foot the bill if some suggestions are taken seriously.

Strathclyde Police's world-renowned pipe band is already under serious threat.