When the vacancy opened up last month, the general consensus was that whoever won the leadership race would be no Nicola Sturgeon. Since then, the reputation of the departing First Minister has been so roundly trashed that’s she’s no Nicola Sturgeon either.

It is hard to think of a party that has inflicted so much damage on itself in such a brief period of time as the SNP has over the past six weeks.

From tetchy leadership debates during which candidates have trashed each other and their party’s record to the resignation of Sturgeon’s husband, Peter Murrell, as chief executive over an attempt to deceive the public about party membership, these have been difficult days for the SNP. An organisation once considered an unstoppable force is now mired in seemingly unstoppable farce. Even allies in this fracturing party can’t agree with each other. The SNP is in a mess, declared president Michael Russell. The SNP is not in a mess, countered Sturgeon, like a police officer standing in front of a burning fireworks factory, shouting "nothing to see, here”.

Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, is seen leaving the chamber following her final First Ministers Questions. Picture: Peter Summers/Getty Images

Truly, we find ourselves in extraordinary times when Mike Russell is correct about something.

So pity the poor soul who’s about to inherit the SNP leadership. If ever circumstances existed to support the warning that one should be careful what one wishes for, these are they.

In the absence of polling of SNP members, it’s difficult to predict which of the candidates - Health Secretary Humza Yousaf, Finance Secretary Kate Forbes, or former Community Safety Minister Ash Regan - will prevail. In saying that, it’s safe to say that nobody - including members of her campaign team - expects a Regan victory.

As she delivered her final remarks as First Minister to the Scottish Parliament on Tuesday, Sturgeon noted that her successor would either be Scotland’s second female leader or first from a minority ethnic background. Either outcome would send a powerful message that any young person, no matter their background, can fulfil their dreams.

Only a churl would disagree. But the result will tell us other things, too.

If Yousaf is selected by SNP members, we’ll know that incompetence is no barrier to achieving the highest office in Scotland. His victory would confirm that one may be - in succession - the worst Transport Secretary, Justice Secretary, and Health Secretary since the establishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999 and go on to lead the nation.

If, on the other hand, Forbes comes out on top, we’ll know the SNP is not the beacon for progressive politics that its spin would have us believe. Forbes’s deeply conservative social views - she would not have voted to allow gay people to marry had she been an elected member when the necessary legislation was passed - have horrified many of her colleagues. Their agony is, I’m sure, compounded by the fact that she is clearly smarter than Yousaf.

Whichever of these imperfect candidates succeeds Sturgeon will inherit a fractured SNP. A party once famed for its extraordinary discipline and unity is now bogged down by in-fighting. Meanwhile, polls tell us that none of the leadership candidates enjoys notable support among the wider public. Forbes may be more popular than Yousaf but none-of-the-above continues to lead the pack so far as Scottish voters are concerned.

I wonder whether Sturgeon’s successor will be able to bring the SNP back together, again. And, if they can do this, I wonder how long that unity will last.

In the 2017 General Election, the SNP lost 21 of the 56 seats it had won two years previously. Sturgeon had - wrongly - believed the result of the EU referendum would increase support for independence. Scots, having voted to remain in the EU, would be so outraged at being “dragged out” against their will that they would rally behind the SNP.

Sturgeon went hard on this line and the electorate bit back.

The loss of these seats was bearable by Sturgeon because of her overwhelming popularity within her party. The SNP would forgive her anything.

The next leader will not inherit that goodwill along with the keys to Bute House.

A revitalised Labour Party, under the leadership of Keir Starmer, is currently on course to defeat the Conservative Party at the next General Election. Some in SNP circles are bracing themselves for the loss of seats to Labour.

If this likely scenario comes to pass, the party’s leader won’t enjoy the same protection from recrimination that Sturgeon did. For her, the loss of 21 seats was painful but far from career-threatening. So popular was she with members that the 2017 result could be written off as a blip.

Neither Yousaf nor Forbes will easily brush off the loss of seats at the next election. There will be an angry post-mortem. Blame will be apportioned and retribution sought. I wouldn’t be surprised if a leadership challenge was launched.

Since Nicola Sturgeon announced her decision to resign, the SNP has fractured. A lot of people have said a lot of things that can’t be taken back.

Neither Humza Yousaf nor Kate Forbes should expect a honeymoon period if they take office. Instead, the winner of the SNP leadership contest should brace for turbulence.

After more than eight years as First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon departed at a moment of her own choosing. If the SNP suffers serious casualties at the next General Election, her successor may not enjoy that luxury.

SNP leadership contest: Next leader cannot bank on goodwill held by Nicola Sturgeon - Euan McColm

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