Taxi for McLetchie?

The Scottish Tory leader’s ambition is to study modern history as a mature university student and, after four decades of effort, to cross the Swilken bridge with a golf handicap reduced to single figures.

He may get his wish sooner rather than later because, after barely four years of effort at the helm of his party, some colleagues fear it is the Tory group in the Scottish parliament which is heading for single figures.

Persistently poor showings in opinion polls, including one conducted for Scotland on Sunday last week, suggest May’s elections could represent the party’s worst result since the 1997 wipeout that left it without a single Scottish seat.

McLetchie shrugs off such gloomy talk and insists he and his band of MSPs in the parliament the party campaigned against are now here to stay.

"I’m a sticker," he says coolly. "I recognised in 1999 when I put myself forward that rebuilding would be a long haul. I have absolutely no intention of quitting."

McLetchie, who claims the party will increase its tally of seats from 19 by winning several new constituencies, looks inquisitors straight in the eye as he delivers his predictions.

But critics say it’s a bluff typical of a lawyer, that the confident gaze masks a party in serious trouble. Behind the scenes McLetchie’s ambitions indeed look more limited.

A leaked internal brief given to ad agencies bidding for the party’s campaign posters contract discloses that the Scottish Tories are aiming only to increase their vote share from 15.6% to 18% in May.

Similarly the party has repeatedly sought to dismiss newspaper polls which have reflected badly on it, claiming these underestimate its true level of support.

But even the party’s internal research has set alarm bells ringing. Scotland on Sunday understands that ICM polling ordered by Tory Central Office has suggested the party will score around 13% in the first and second Holyrood votes.

That could signal the loss of up to a third of the party’s MSPs, almost all of whom were elected through the second, proportional representation vote. It could wreck the political careers of deputy presiding officer Murray Tosh, former minister Lord James Douglas Hamilton, David Mundell and Mary Scanlon, among others.

ICM, which is also understood to have found widespread doubts over what the party stands for, predicted accurately that Sir Malcolm Rifkind in Edinburgh Pentlands and chairman Raymond Robertson in Eastwood would crash to defeat in the 2001 general election.

Nothing concentrates the mind like the fear of oblivion - thus senior party figures are desperately trying to push McLetchie on to a more electorally attractive agenda.

Right-wingers, already concerned by a loss of key officials and falling donations, want a more aggressive, risk-taking approach. They say the party should unashamedly push for more private involvement in the health service and radically opening up parental choice in schools.

They say Scottish Tories must also better market themselves as the party of fiscal prudence and restraint - something they claim was not helped when McLetchie backed the costly policy of free personal care for the elderly.

A tax-cutting agenda that extends to using the tartan tax-varying powers to take 3p in the pound off income tax is supported by senior figures understood to include former Scottish Secretary Michael Forsyth.

But McLetchie, who insists that his policies on devolving school and hospital management and creating more specialist schools are radical, suggests the cost of administrating a tartan tax cut could be disproportionate to the benefits raised.

Others say he is missing the point: the Tories, they argue, have to appeal to people’s wallets in a way no other party currently does and, after all, at this stage in the recovery they are a long way from having to deliver any of their promises.

Others want the party to back fiscal autonomy, which would require the Scottish parliament to spend only on the basis of the taxes raised in Scotland rather than rely on London to hand out a block grant.

In principle McLetchie likes the idea, which would encourage greater financial responsibility on politicians and end the "begging bowl" mentality.

But, as with the tartan tax cut, he fears it could affect the stability of Scottish business and he would rather the issue was considered by a Royal Commission - a body which would take years to report back and would be set up only if the Tories win power.

Nor will McLetchie promise to cut business rates to below the English rate rather than just match them.

Acting against such radicalism, according to some Tory insiders, is a reluctance to leave the "comfort zone" in which the Scottish leadership finds itself.

One said: "He doesn’t want to frighten the horses. One of the reasons for that is the proportional representation system has given the party a false dawn. It looks willing to sacrifice almost anything to keep these list seats. That is why they won’t break the public spending consensus - and that way lies oblivion.

"David has achieved a position where people no longer spit in the street when the word Tory is mentioned. But he has not enthused people enough by offering that extra edge that makes people think positively about us. We can now afford to put our head above the parapet."

Or as another put it: "Maybe we need to scare the horses. Our policies as not that much different from 1999."

Dissident Tories fear the party runs the risk not only of failing to make inroads in May but leaving itself vulnerable to challenges from single-issue candidates, such as those fighting to safeguard hospital services in Glasgow and Fife, and from new parties such as the planned "New Party for Britain", a right-of-centre UKI venture which is backed by an unnamed Scottish industrialist and is planning to put up candidates in May.

The Scottish Business party, which supports fiscal autonomy, also hopes to stand candidates in the 2007 Holyrood election, to address an agenda it feels is being ignored by Tories and others.

And there is concern in Tory circles that a new rural or countryside party could also emerge to take key votes off the party.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, says the Tories are right to worry. He describes the party’s performance over the last four years as "dire" and says it could be relegated to the fringes, finishing fourth in May behind the Lib Dems.

"The party is in danger of slipping to minor status, in the same league as Tommy Sheridan’s Scottish Socialists," he says.

"The long-term problem is the party is still regarded as an English party. It is still suffering from its opposition to devolution, and the fact that they say they want to cut the number of MSPs in the parliament is arguably only reinforcing that negativity."

That McLetchie recently admitted he would still vote No in a Scottish parliament referendum did little to help rebrand the Scottish party. Curtice suggests backing fiscal autonomy could underline the party’s Scottish credentials and appeal to those who want more responsible government.

Former Tory MSP Nick Johnston, who quit the Scottish parliament in 2001 for health reasons, agrees that negativity has contributed to the party’s predicament.

"What we have failed to do is give anyone a clear reason to vote Conservative. All our campaigning is relentlessly negative.

"We don’t even seem to know whether we want the Scottish parliament to work or not. We say nothing relevant at all. I genuinely fear that we are about to slip behind the Liberal Democrats in the share of the vote."

Some MSPs are particularly concerned after Scotland on Sunday revealed that the party has awarded its campaign posters contract to a firm whose pitch depicted Jack McConnell as a less-than-developed life form and termed the new parliament building "Follyrood".

But there is another factor that few in the Scottish party can do anything about. Tory MPs in the Commons are lining up behind Iain Duncan Smith, but only to stab him in the back after a lacklustre performance as UK leader. Barely a week passes without the party’s policy agenda being overshadowed by self-destructive infighting over the IDS leadership, a state of affairs which McLetchie acknowledges is likely to hinder the Scottish party too.

"Clearly the continuing question marks about the party leadership at a UK level is a distraction for me and a major distraction for Iain Duncan Smith and the agenda he was wants to pursue.

"I just wish some people would accept the result of the party election and let him get on with the job he has to do."

A recent Scotland on Sunday poll found almost two-thirds of Tory constituency party chairmen fear the wrangling at UK level could cost the Scottish party votes. Voters do not appear to distinguish between the Tory brand north and south of the Border. For so long as they cannot treat IDS seriously as an alternative Prime Minister, McLetchie is likely to struggle to take the Scottish Tories where he wants.

That has led some senior party insiders to suggest this election could be the last fought by the Scottish party in its present form. Activists are again discussing the possibility of declaring UDI and breaking away from the UK Tories, an idea which John Curtice said could prove electorally beneficial. Under this plan they could follow the approach of Ulster Unionists in the Commons who are preparing to take the Tory whip for voting purposes while maintaining a separate identity.

Others want to drop the word "unionist" from the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party. McLetchie insists he will have no truck with such "crypto-nationalism" - but, after May, that might not be his decision to make.

"We realise that David is our best asset and there is no obvious successor, but we also said William Hague was our best asset, and that did not stop him standing down," said one McLetchie supporter. "I am concerned that there is a degree of complacency about what we offer the public and that things are drifting. If we end up falling to 16 seats David is probably safe. Anything below that becomes difficult, and if it is as bad as 12 David is in deep trouble."

Another suggested Murdo Fraser, the young right-winger who replaced Nick Johnston, should take over. "McLetchie is a good and decent man and he would make a very good and decent number two to a rather flamboyant and brave number one."

In a sign of how febrile the atmosphere has become, some critics are claiming McLetchie’s outside work as a practising solicitor with Edinburgh legal firm Tods Murray, which earns him between 25,000 and 30,000, is diverting him from his political responsibilities.

McLetchie still manages to turn in between 50 and 60 hours a week for the party and says his legal work does not detract from his political duties.

But for all his efforts, in some quarters at least the mood has turned ugly and knives are again out for the Scottish Tory leader. For David McLetchie St Andrews, a lecture-room seat and his nine iron must look more attractive by the day.