Take my advice, George: get to Baghdad then get the hell out

MEMO TO: THE PRESIDENT FROM: GEORGE BUSH, SEN

Son,

Hope you are enjoying your vacation in Crawford. You asked for my thoughts on how fighting Iraq this time would differ from 12 years ago when I led the allied coalition. Well, I’m going to skip military advice. You’ll have plenty of that. Just bear in mind when generals WANT to do something they say it will take far fewer soldiers. When they DON’T want to do something, suddenly the size of the army and the cost doubles. You got me?

Now, all our people in the Republican National Committee want you to do nothing - NOTHING - until after the mid-term elections on 5 November. It’s going to be tough enough for our candidates fighting off the sleaze from Enron and Arthur Andersen without taking on Saddam as well. And you have to prepare yourself. By 6 November, our party might not have control of either the House or the Senate. That means here at home your hands will be tied by the Democrats in Congress, so your only chance to make a difference will be in foreign affairs and as Commander in Chief. This means it’s a GOOD time for a war.

George, it is my strong recommendation that early on 6 November you announce that you are sending two aircraft-carrier battlegroups to the Gulf. Or whatever. Each day make a further announcement. Send the 82nd Airborne one day, B52 bombers to Diego Garcia the next, Patriot and other anti-missile batteries to Kuwait the following day. Drip-feed the news. You’ll be the only story in town. Go visit the troops in the Gulf at the end of November.

Spend Thanksgiving with them. Say a few prayers, eat turkey - oh, and maybe visit Turkey. And the Saudis. Make it clear this is the last chance for our "friends" to get with the war. Swing by London so Blair can say you’re doing great. Get the picture?

NEXT: Congress. As soon as they realise you are serious about the war, all 435 of the Munchkins in the House and 100 in the Senate will start pretending that they are running things. REMEMBER: THIS IS OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO ANYONE. Twelve years ago, Congress went on for days debating my policy. Some of them spoke AGAINST the war, then voted FOR it. Some spoke FOR the war and then voted AGAINST. George, they ALWAYS do this. It means that if things go right, the Munchkins point to their support for the policy, and if it all goes wrong they can point to the fact that they were against it too. Neat, uh? But please remember: Congress debating is like cicadas singing in the trees in west Texas. It sounds loud, but it means nothing.

It would be best not to start the real fighting before Christmas. Wouldn’t be prudent. The military like January because it is cool. Politically, it’s cool too. Go for it, say by the middle of the month. One thing which would help would be some Congressional hearings on Saddam’s atrocities. In 1991 we managed to get a load of coverage on Iraqi troops throwing babies off incubators in Kuwait city hospital. We even got the daughter of Kuwait’s ambassador here in Washington to do a real tear-jerker eyewitness account - even though she wasn’t in Kuwait when it happened. Great show. Everybody fell for it.

Stories about enemy soldiers bayoneting babies have been a propaganda clich ever since the First World War - but the public lap it up. Remind the world that not even Hitler used poison gas on the battlefield, as Saddam did against Iran. (But skip the part about US intelligence helping Iraq target the Iranian troops, when I was Reagan’s Vice President. Don’t muddle the message.) The big difference from 12 years ago is that in 1991 we got the Arabs to pay for the war. This time they won’t. The whole cost of $100 billion will be down to the US taxpayer at a time when the economy looks shaky. I guess maybe you’ll need a further memo on how to fill the budget black hole.

But one final piece of advice: have fun. The fun stops as soon as the war is won. Get to Baghdad then get the hell out. Declare victory and leave long before your re-election campaign.

Is that enough for now? Mommie sends her love, and asks me to remind you to always wear sunscreen out in the heat.

Your ever loving,

Pops

Gavin Esler is a presenter on BBC News 24.