Stephen Salter: The winds of change are manageable

During these unusual periods Scotland would have to burn the gas that was still in the ground because we had not burned it when wind patterns were normal. There will be plenty of Scottish gas for some time yet.

The nuclear advocates want us to believe that only nuclear can provide firm base-load but this is far from the case. The availability of British nuclear plant is in the low seventies. Some of the outages are planned for summer periods of low demand, but others can be forced at no notice and last for months or even years. Grid operators have to assume that there may be a simultaneous and unpredicted loss of the two biggest sets or connectors on the system. In contrast our meteorologists can give several days' notice of calms and our oceanographers can predict tidal outputs for many thousands of years.

If Scotland were to depend on two new reactors they would also have to be backed up by gas, hydro and the English connector. The pot is calling the kettle black. The temperature cycles needed for following fluctuations in demand are very bad for the hot parts of nuclear reactors. If the full potential of close-packed turbines in the Pentland Firth was combined with close-packed offshore wave plant and offshore wind, Scotland would have far more electricity than it could ever need. The surplus could be used for the synthesis of easily stored liquid fuels and methane, giving complete firmness and valuable exports. If the policy of UK governments had allowed steady development since the first energy crisis we could have been very close to this now. A final idea for improving energy security is to prevent the sale of infrastructure to foreign firms who might have less motivation to keep the lights on.

• Stephen Salter is Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design at Edinburgh University.