So will it all be grim up north for McLetchie?

SCOTTISH Tories have been watching with a mixture of horror and resignation as their colleagues south of the Border tear themselves apart.

Devolution has given Conservatives in Scotland a certain detachment from the UK party which means they don’t need to feel entirely responsible for the antics of Iain Duncan Smith, Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo or any of the other characters in the latest Westminster farce.

But the apparent desire of the party down south to self-destruct is bound to have an effect on the fortunes of the Tories here - hence the horror.

Equally, the Tories in Scotland have already been through the 1997 wipe-out, the defeat in the devolution referendum and the depressing failure to make any significant comeback - hence the resignation to a long, slow recovery.

So what impact will the IDS saga have in Scotland?

There have been claims Scottish Tory leader David McLetchie could come under pressure to quit if the party performs badly in next May’s Scottish Parliament elections. Rising right-wing star Murdo Fraser or Mr McLetchie’s matronly deputy Annabel Goldie are touted as successors.

But party insiders are sceptical. "Annabel would not have huge support," says one senior source. "And Murdo is not remotely ready for it."

Mr Fraser is widely admired inside the party, but only became an MSP last year as next on the list after a disillusioned Nick Johnston stepped down on health grounds. "I would be very surprised if Murdo was gagging to be leader so soon," says the source.

"He may have a notion to succeed one day and he might well be the right person one day, but no-one can think he’s up to it next year."

The elections next May will be a major test for the Tories, but no-one was ever predicting a breakthrough.

Mr McLetchie has described the squabbling and speculation surrounding Mr Duncan Smith as "a distraction we could do without". It might well dissuade disillusioned Tory voters from returning to the fold just yet, but there were probably very few new converts to Conservatism to be lost anyway. The in-fighting will affect the morale of party activists, which is already low.

"There is less enthusiasm these days," says one insider. "Now there are not all that many activists and certainly not many young ones."

Last month’s ranking of candidates for the Tory top-up lists has left some bitter and bruised. At least two current MSPs, Lyndsay McIntosh and Keith Harding, know they will not be back in the parliament.

And if the polls are to be believed, quite a few others will also be losing their places at The Mound. Recent ratings would see the Tories reduced from their current 19 seats to just eight or nine.

But senior party figures insist the System Three surveys always under-estimate their support and argue the voting system for the Scottish Parliament means parties have to lose a lot of votes for their share of the seats to change much.

"We expect to do much the same as last time," says one senior MSP. "We reckon the polls significantly overstate the Nats and significantly understate us and we’ve been doing well in local council by-elections across Scotland.

"If it’s a bad election we will lose a couple of seats; if it’s a good election, we will win a couple. No one is thinking in terms of going down to eight or ten seats. No one is thinking: ‘Disaster - McLetchie must go’.

"If we did get that low, he might think he had to stand down, but if the result was that bad it would have very little to do with him and a lot to do with what’s been happening down south."

Even one of Mr McLetchie’s critics in the party forecasts he will carry on as leader.

"There is likely to be a groundswell of discontent from the disaffected, but David will probably cling on."

The Tories have almost come to accept that Scots have not yet forgiven them for those 18 years of unwelcome rule.