Scottish Tories address toughest questions as old certainties falter

SOMEONE with too much time on their hands once discovered that "Tony Blair MP" is an anagram of "I'm Tory Plan B". Never has that revelation seemed more appropriate than in Scotland today after the announcement that the Scottish Tories are now willing to prop up a minority Labour government at Holyrood after the Scottish elections in 2007. The message from the Tories could not be clearer - we are fed up being on the sidelines and want back into the game.

Many will condemn this move. For some Tories, the idea of propping up a Labour government is unconscionable. How, they will ask, can the Tories oppose devolution, criticise almost every measure of the Labour programme since 1999 and then suddenly become the life-support machine for a Labour government diving in the polls?

But step back and this announcement assumes an importance beyond the Tories trading principle for power.

First, it shows that the Tories want to be taken seriously. It shows that they have learned the lessons of futile opposition to the democratic will of the Scottish people - that they are beginning to understand the dynamic of PR elections and coalition governments. All of that is immensely positive for those of us who want to see a vibrant political system. Scotland needs a strong and relevant Conservative Party as part of the spectrum of choice which sustains any democracy.

Secondly, it illustrates that devolution is finally moving beyond its infancy. Parties and voters needed time to learn that the old way of doing things - one vote for one manifesto - had passed into history. In 1999, political parties remained thirled to the sense that only they had a monopoly of good ideas. Given that politics is about conviction, that was perhaps not surprising. Contrast where we are now - even the Conservative Party finally understands that every party in Scotland is a minority party. The language and strategy for all the parties is now all about coalition, stability pacts or support on an issue by issue basis. That is a remarkable cultural shift in seven years.

Thirdly, it is now obvious that the next phase in devolution will return to the faultline of constitutional politics. The next election is shaping up as the Labour/Conservative Unionist alliance on the one side and the SNP/Lib Dem/Green progressive view of the constitution on the other. That binding sense of Unionism, in fact, was cited by the Tories as one of the key reasons why a pact with Labour might work. Scottish politics is not really about Right v Left - it is between those who believe in further constitutional change and those who do not. The two camps in this debate are starting to take on the characteristics of two opposing sides in the referendum campaign which may well come in the next parliament.

Fourthly, it raises a fascinating question for David Cameron, with whom the idea has apparently not yet been formally discussed. If Mr Cameron is indeed happy for the Scottish Tories to set off on a political frolic of their own, this is the most fundamental departure from the notion that anything approaching "British" politics still exists.

We already have the Liberals in opposition in Westminster and government in Scotland and now the Tories seem determined to follow suit. If this idea is followed through, it amounts to a declaration of independence by Scottish Tories. If even the Conservative and Unionist Party has one rule for Scotland and one for the rest of the UK, we can safely lay to rest any suggestion that "British" political parties operate in anything other than name.

But perhaps it is the fact that the Tories are now posing the awkward questions of other parties that is most refreshing. Labour sidesteps the question, saying it is concentrating on beating the Tories, and the SNP continues to shun any prospect of working with the Conservatives despite the Tories voting with the SNP on a weekly basis in Holyrood. This Tory shift forces the two main parties to re-examine their position. In a PR parliament where both need votes, they have no choice.

So 2007 is shaping up as a defining moment for devolution.

Every party finally understands that they will not win a majority and is consequently exploring new electoral combinations. The Tories pledging support to their Labour comrades? Remarkable. How genuinely unfortunate for those behind this initiative that one anagram of "Conservative" is "craven soviet".