Robin Paxton: All eyes on Central Asia – but don't expect Kyrgyzstan revolt to have domino effect

KYRGYZSTAN'S second uprising in five years is likely to prompt the leaders of other strategically important Central Asian states to tighten their grip to prevent challenges to their rule.

Those other states share many of Kyrgyzstan's social problems. What separates them is that their governments are entrenched and their populations less politically active – a combination that makes their hold on power relatively secure.

Ex-Soviet Central Asia, covering an area nearly seven times the size of France, lies at the heart of a geopolitical tug-of-war between Russia, the United States and China. The mainly Muslim region of mountains and steppe, which sits on some of the world's largest reserves of oil, gas, uranium and gold, has assumed greater global significance since the invasion of neighbouring Afghanistan. Three of the region's five countries, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, have allowed Nato forces to use their military bases to support operations against the Taleban.

Kyrgyzstan is under the rule of an interim government that seized control when president Kurmanbek Bakiyev fled the capital after his troops opened fire on more than 5,000 protesters last week. At least 82 people died in the violence.

Bakiyev himself swept to power five years ago in the "Tulip Revolution", removing the nation's first post-Soviet leader, Askar Akayev. No other Central Asian state has removed a leader.

"A lot of the complaints held by people in Kyrgyzstan are shared by people in other countries: corruption, nepotism and failing to disseminate money to the population," Ana Jelenkovic, analyst at political risk research firm Eurasia Group, said.

"But Kyrgyzstan was a specific case as it has a very politically active culture, much more engaged than the other Central Asian states. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, the rulers have much stronger control over their territory than Bakiyev did. It's difficult to envision a mass uprising."

The Ferghana valley, to which Bakiyev has fled, is among the most vulnerable regions. Split between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, it is home to different ethnicities and is seen as a hothouse of Islamic extremists pursuing a single state.

Most analysts think the current power structure in Central Asia could be seriously challenged only when existing leaders leave their posts. Kazakhstan has been ruled by Nursultan Nazarbayev and Uzbekistan by Islam Karimov since the break-up of the Soviet Union. Imomali Rakhmon became Tajikistan's de-facto ruler in 1992 and was elected president two years later.

Kazakhstan, Central Asia's biggest economy, the world's largest uranium producer and a major supplier of copper, gold and oil, is much less susceptible to unrest than other states in the region because of its mineral resources, analysts said.