Return of the old gang shows that compromise is as far away as ever

IN MOST places, a Nobel Peace Prize on the CV would be considered something of an advantage. Not so, it would appear, in Northern Ireland.

The demise of David Trimble, the former MP for Upper Bann and recently retired leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, is a graphic depiction of the polarisation of Northern Irish politics. The former first minister, historic player in the Good Friday Agreement and champion of moderate unionism, is now surplus to requirements.

The recent election confirmed Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party as the largest party, with nine seats, and Sinn Fein as the second party, with five.

The Social Democratic and Labour Party, the moderate nationalist party, won three seats and the UUP only one.

As with previous elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, those offering the reassurance of old divisions have been rewarded. In normal elections, the way to win is to dominate the centre ground. By contrast, in Northern Ireland, the centre ground is a political graveyard.

As ever, there are some interesting sub-plots. In winning South Belfast, the SDLP did something extremely important. Rather than playing to the nationalist extremes, it took that seat by courting moderate unionist votes. As a result, the constituency has a nationalist MP for the first time in its history. That ability to tease the softer side of Protestant Ulster may yet be significant if a peaceful, lasting settlement to the Irish question is to be found.

But for all those subtleties, the headline-grabbing story is once more about those two giants of Northern Irish politics - Paisley and Gerry Adams.

Certainly, the blood and thunder theocratic fundamentalism of Paisley appears to be back in vogue with a unionist community which has lost confidence in the UUP. Trimble bravely, and rightly, gambled on Sinn Fein delivering sufficient IRA concessions, but that gamble appears to have failed. As a result, unionists have adopted a more intransigent approach and Mr Trimble has paid the penalty.

For Sinn Fein, the increase to five seats represents continued progress and proves that the remarkable balancing act between inching towards IRA concessions and not being accused of abandoning their core vote continues. Adams and Martin McGuinness have been under immense pressure as a result of the Northern Bank raid and the Robert McCartney killing. A refreshed mandate is testament to their political cunning.

The question for both parties is what happens now. The SDLP and the UUP have been sidelined and the Good Friday Agreement seems badly damaged. Paisley has ruled out power-sharing with Sinn Fein and gloats daily over the demise of the peace process. Sinn Fein appears unable or unwilling to shift the IRA much further in the immediate future. As one Irish commentator put it, it looks as if these two parties "need each other as mortal enemies". Political deadlock and the restoration of old certainties have a familiar, if macabre, feel.

But perhaps breaking this deadlock can be Tony Blair's parting gift. I give the Prime Minister immense credit for his role in the Good Friday talks. For all his faults, he is a major figure who understands the backdrop to all that has gone before. Delivering agreement this time may not be possible, but even the process of hosting new talks and putting the DUP and Sinn Fein in the spotlight will help. It is not as if the position can become polarised - that happened long ago. Instead, the two main parties will share responsibility for the success, or failure, of a review of the Good Friday Agreement.

MR BLAIR must remove the comfort zone. Only when the DUP has shared ownership of the peace process will progress be possible. The DUP cannot be allowed the luxury of claiming to be the leading party in Northern Ireland and then refuse to lead.

Direct rule from Westminster is a non-starter. Not only would it alienate Sinn Fein, but it would allow the DUP to abdicate responsibility. Paisley's job is to work positively for peace and prosperity, not throw his hands up in horror and ask London to sort it out.

The message from this side of the Irish Sea must be that this is now Northern Ireland's problem. If voters want to support extreme positions, they must live with the consequences. Local democracy in Northern Ireland should be restored with or without the DUP's participation. If that appears high-risk, just ask yourself if it would be better to allow the self-indulgent intransigence of yesterday's politicians to blight the lives of another generation.