Political will is needed to get us out of the recession

THE next set of GDP statistics due in April could confirm that, like the UK as a whole, Scotland returned to growth in quarter four, 2009. However, any recovery is likely to be tentative, prolonged and fragile, and the challenges remain profound.

Despite the range and nature of these challenges, the run-up to the Budget will almost certainly be dominated by claim and counter claim over the UK's deficit and rising stock of public debt.

It has been amusing and grotesque to witness "business experts" impart portentous views on the fate that waits when the wrath of the markets is inevitably visited on a fiscally incontinent UK.

Best ignore that they never describe what is actually happening in the markets. Why allow sober, objective analysis of the facts to get in the way of a self-serving scare story? Why take account of the manifest differences between the UK and Greece when a trite, alarmist comparison is guaranteed some decent media coverage?

Scotland's workers and communities deserve better. Whilst a focus on the deficit suits those constituencies whose irresponsibility provoked the recession, the Chancellor should accept the key challenges are the unemployment crisis and the revenue crisis.

Against this background, implementing a programme of public expenditure cuts in 2010 is as irresponsible as it is economically illiterate. Why is it the deficit hawks have been content for the UK to incur liabilities through military operations or tax cuts for the wealthy? Why does panic only set in when deficits rise to support ordinary working people?

Shamelessly, the impact of higher deficits (in the shape of higher future taxation) on young people is proposed as a reason to cut immediately. But the STUC believes anyone who is concerned about the prospects of young people will argue for more government spending to create jobs. The evidence is clear – the burden of higher unemployment falls on young workers, with entrants to the labour market in years of higher unemployment suffering permanent career damage.

Deficit myopia is bound to produce bad economic decisions; needlessly consigning the economy to years of stagnation and our young people to a future bereft of opportunity. Bad political decisions got us into the mess – leadership and a clear focus on the nature of the challenges are necessary to get us out of it.

• Kevin Buchanan works for STUC media and research.