Michael 't Sas-Rolfes: Alternative thinking is needed to challenge animal parts gangs

Cites secretary-general Willem Wijnstekers said attempts to halt the decline of tigers have "failed miserably," while organised crime is playing an increasing role in illegal trade. It's time to consider alternatives.

Since its inception some 35 years ago, Cites has progressively stepped up attempts to control or shut down the trade in parts of tigers, elephants, rhinoceroses and bears, yet demand persists, for both ornamental and "medicinal" uses.

In an attempt to meet this demand, people in China and some neighbouring states have tried to breed captive bears, tigers and rhinoceroses. This horrifies Western conservation and animal welfare groups but their sentimental response may not be in the best interests of the remaining wild animals.

Bear farming in China allows a domestic trade in bear bile (extracted from gall bladders while they are alive). It's a nasty business but, although illegal trade in bear parts continues in unstable countries such as Myanmar, there does not appear to be much large-scale poaching of wild bears for gall bladders.

Tiger farming began in China in the 1980s and harbours more tigers than are in the wild. However, China banned domestic trade in tiger products in 1993, despite repeated domestic calls to reopen trade. Meanwhile, wild tiger numbers have dropped from some 5,000 or more in 1996 to below 3,200 today, and there is evidence of organised, large-scale poaching in, for example, India.

Some farmed tiger parts appear to have leaked onto the black market, leading the World Bank and others to call for an end to captive breeding in China – removing any potential for legal trade once and for all. But is this a good idea?

The evidence suggests that when supply is restricted, price rises dramatically. So the ban on wildlife trade generates high rewards for those willing to risk supplying it. And disposable incomes in Asia are rising fast so, although tastes may be changing, consumers are still willing to spend more for illegal wildlife products. And even as law enforcers clamp down on loopholes, so new ones are exploited – such as using lion bones instead of tiger bones.

But even if all these supplies are cut off, demand looks set to remain high, so the suppliers of last resort will be the serious professionals: organised criminals who specialise in smuggling arms, drugs and other high-value illicit goods. This presents a serious challenge to conservation for two reasons.

First, organised crime is usually several steps ahead of the law, especially in lower-income countries with an almost endless supply of corruptible officials and willing suppliers (poachers and the rural poor).

Secondly, unlike the opportunists who exploit loopholes in laws and breeding programmes, criminal gangs are likely to set their sights on what matters most to biodiversity conservation: the core populations in protected areas. This has already happened to a large extent with rhinos and elephants, and more recently with tigers.

Shutting down China's captive breeding would reinforce the criminal monopoly on trade in tigers by eliminating potential alternative sources.

Given the persistent demand and the dwindling numbers of wild tigers and rhinos – in spite of decades of bans – it is time to explore options that would legally satisfy demand, save wild animals and undermine organised crime too.

Michael 't Sas Rolfes is an environmental economist based in Cape Town.