Michael Blackley: Polish pack up as Capital loses appeal to immigrants

For years, they have been welcomed in their tens of thousands but, as Michael Blackley finds, the Poles are now heading home

THEY have changed the face of Edinburgh, providing a welcome boost to the city economy, a steady stream of vital new workers and a range of eclectic additions to the city's shops.

Since the enlargement of the European Union in 2004, it is estimated that up to 30,000 Polish people alone have successfully set up home here.

But a new study provides evidence that the Eastern European love affair with the Capital is on the rocks.

The city council report has suggested that far fewer people are migrating to the recession-hit Capital - and many of the existing Poles, Lithuanians and others are moving back home.

While specific statistics are not produced, the main indication that workers are leaving these shores comes from the cost of providing council services to immigrants - everything from advice and information, interpretation and community learning.

For several years, the cost has climbed substantially and in the two years to April 2009 it more than doubled, to 1.75 million. However, that trend changed in 2009/10, with the total cost falling back marginally to 1.74m, and it is expected to fall further this year.

At the same time, only 220 workers from the eight countries that joined the EU in 2004 moved to Edinburgh in the first three months of this year, which is down 46 per cent on the same period last year.

Tomasz Trafas, Poland's consul general in Edinburgh, said: "The stats from the Home Office are very clear; the number of applications (from Polish people) is falling.

"It is difficult to collect statistics that provide a proper picture. The number seems to me to have stabilised; it's not going up but it's not going down either. There is not a visible number of people deciding to go back but there probably is a group that will because of the lack of jobs.

"If people are here one, two, three or more years the decision is hard because they have a home here."

Scotland has had a long association with Poland, with many soldiers remaining in Scotland after marrying Scottish women after the war.

That association influenced many Polish migrants that came to the UK to escape their weak economy in the last five or so years to choose Scotland ahead of other parts of the UK.

"The policy of the Scottish Government was very open and supportive for working migrants," said Mr Trafas. "There were benefits from both sides, in terms of Poles getting work but also for the Scottish economy."

Business leaders say that the skilled labour was needed but that has started to change now that unemployment has surged and many more people are battling for jobs.Britain was one of the European countries hit hardest by the recession initially, while Poland and other Eastern European countries avoided the worst until more recently.

That means that many Polish people will have started to find it more attractive to return home, where there may be more chance of work.

While there may sometimes be an undercurrent of tension when non-Scots get jobs ahead of the country's own unemployed, Graham Bell, a spokesman for the Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce, believes that is the wrong outlook to take. He said: "In terms of Scotland and its declining indigenous population, we have been dependent on keeping numbers up on our migrant population."

He added: "It is a legal right of those that are EU citizens to look for work here. And the reality is that the Scotland of the future is going to need good qualified workers."

Councillor Tom Buchanan, the city's economic development leader, admitted that it is only natural during a recession for all nationalities of workers to look at moving to other countries to find work. He said: "The free movement of labour has been of great benefit to Edinburgh. Just as Scots have migrated overseas, so inward migration to Edinburgh has helped the local economy and improved the cosmopolitan nature of the city.

"As with every other economic cycle, people are attracted to an area when jobs are most readily available and look elsewhere when the labour market is tighter."

POPULATION BOOM AND BUST

25,000-30,000: Estimated number of Polish people currently living in Edinburgh

5100: Total number of new migrants arriving in Edinburgh in 2008/09

46.3%: decline in workers from EU new member states registering in Edinburgh in first three months of 2010

1.74m: Total cost of council services provided to

Immigrants in 2009/10 (down from 1.75m in 2008/09)

477,660: Total population of Edinburgh