Letter: North Korea has no reason for invasion

GERALD Warner (Insight, 3 October) offers no reasons for North Korea (which is no more "communist than the Congo Republic is "democratic") to attack its neighbours.

It would gain nothing from such and risk all. Many of its troops might desert, seeing the vastly superior conditions in the South, or even turn against their officers, as did Tsarist soldiers in 1917. They would be loath to kill their fellow Koreans.

North Korean generals have no experience of warfare and low capabilities, owing their positions solely to political favour. The Soviet Union and the USA, despite their massive military power, could not subdue poor, backward Afghanistan and Vietnam.

North Korea's chances of success would be even smaller in very rich and advanced societies like those of the South and Japan.

Even if invasion succeeded, it is hard to see how North Korea could govern successfully the conquered states where it has no supporters. It could not install puppet governments. It has failed miserably in its own patch despite its total hegemony there.

Mr Warner's claim that China would not intervene is specious. It gains hugely from trade and tourism with its neighbours.

Its support for North Korea brings few benefits and it might well choose to "pull the plug". At least it would probably stop supplying food to North Korea.

John Munro, Glasgow