Leader comment: Council by-election

The ability of political anoraks to analyse to within an inch of its life even the slightest change in the domestic landscape is a habit which the rest of the population finds most frustrating.

As a local council by- election, this week's poll in Liberton/Gilmerton certainly registers fairly low on any scale of earth-shattering events. Yet, for anyone interested in reading the runes, the result provides plenty of food for thought.

The resounding win for Labour - up nearly ten percentage points overall, with an eight per cent swing from the SNP - underlines their status as the party of the Establishment at almost every level in Scotland, despite the recent encroachment of the SNP and Liberal Democrats. They are the party that people seem willing to return home to again and again.

Significantly, they also appear ready to regain their mantle as the best organised political machine in the country, after temporarily losing that position to their two afore-mentioned rivals.The Lib Dems admit they are suffering the voters' "anger" over their decision to tie themsevles to the Conservatives at Westminster, while any sign of a recovery in the Tory vote north of the Border remains conspicuously absent.

What does it all mean? Well, the first significant test of any conjecture will come in next May's Holyrood elections.

All the polls currently point to Labour becoming the biggest party, although only a fool would count against Alex Salmond's SNP staging some kind of dogged fightback. That could leave Labour forming it's own minority administration, or, intriguingly, with one eye on Westminster, considering a renewed Holyrood coalition with the Lib Dems.

Changes could be afoot at the City Chambers the following year. Despite the SNP's anti-trams stance, city voters appear willing to punish both the Capital's ruling coalition partners over the fiasco. It seems unlikely those partners will be able to hold on to power without forging some kind of wider "Rainbow" coalition. There is still everything to play for, but the fall-out from the trams may prove crucial.