John McTernan: With a parliamentary election not so far off, the Scottish parties must begin to work out strategies

IN this paper yesterday, Nicola Sturgeon revealed the worst-kept secret in Scottish politics, the 2011 election won't be about policies it will be about personalities. Or, to be higher-minded, about it, leadership. Alex Salmond v Iain Gray for the undisputed title of "He Who Stands Up Most For Scotland."

This month is undoubtedly the start of the long campaign. When Labour's conference closes in Oban it will be just over six months until polling day. Not only has the centre of political gravity shifted to the Scottish Parliament, one of Scottish Labour's most significant figures has moved to pastures new. Jim Murphy, widely recognised as having put Labour back in the game in Scotland, has been promoted by Ed Miliband to the post of Shadow Secretary of State for Defence.

Into his post has come able Glasgow MP Ann McKechin supported by rising star Tom Greatrex (disclosure: he was my harder working adviser colleague in the Scotland Office under Murphy). However, they will not achieve – or even attempt – Murphy's ubiquity in the media. The main Labour voice in Scotland for the foreseeable future will be Iain Gray.

Scottish Labour is clearly undecided about how to handle this. On one side are the advocates of the "small target" strategy. They watch Labour's poll lead continue to climb even though the contours of Labour's plans for Scotland are unclear. They fear that getting specific on any policy risks alienating potential voters – let all hopes and fears coalesce behind Labour.

On the other side are those who believe that "definition" is all in politics. They urge Gray to make a clear and concrete stand on enough issues to project a sense of purpose to Scots. They fear that if Labour does not define itself, it will be defined by its opponents.

This latter point is the key to the SNP strategy. They understand Alex Salmond currently has the strongest personal brand in Scottish politics. They want to re-run the 2007 election with Cameron playing the role of Tony Blair and the coalition cuts clinching the case for independence. "It can't be any worse, can it?" will be their core argument.

This could, intriguingly, be an election in which both sides play safe – Salmond swaggers and Gray stays silent. But that seems unlikely. All elections are dynamic, because voters are themselves volatile. For one thing, individual cuts will reverberate. Take child benefit – Scotland has more than its fair share of families who will be hit by the proposed changes.

For another, it seems clear that voters will want a more fine-grained response to the deficit reduction. Something that is between denial – nothing needs to be done – and impossibilism: if only we could change the game it would all go away.

Polls show the public see the sense in reducing the deficit, just not as fast as the coalition propose. It looks possible that the prize could go to whoever dares to change their game plan and meet the voters half-way.