Jeremy McDermott: Chavez beats drums of war once again but threats aren't impressing anyone

PRESIDENT Hugo Chavez is again beating the drums of war after Colombia presented what it assured was evidence of 39 camps in Venezuelan territory housing 1,500 Marxist rebels, all seeking to overthrow the government of President Alvaro Uribe.

The result was Chavez issuing a blanket denial, calling the evidence a hoax and giving all Colombian diplomats 72 hours to leave the country. He is moving troops up to the border and putting the armed forces on to their highest state of alert, telling Venezuelans that the US and Colombia are poised to launch an attack and he was ready to respond in what would become a "100-year war".

The issue of Colombian rebels (principally the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - FARC) using Venezuela is nothing new. Indeed it has been a running sore in the relations between Colombia's right-wing President Uribe and the avowedly socialist Chavez.The two men do not like each other: "I blame Uribe, sick with hatred, he's headed straight to the garbage heap of history," said Chavez.

While the numbers and locations of the camps can be questioned, the fact that Venezuela is a key rearguard area and logistic base for the rebels is beyond dispute.

Yet there is also some Colombian internal politics in the mix, as Mr Uribe decided to take the matter to the Organisation of America States (OAS) just a fortnight before he hands over power, giving his successor and former defence minister Juan Manuel Santos the equivalent of a diplomatic hospital pass.

Rumours here in Bogota are that Uribe has been unhappy at key appointments Santos has made for his government and his plans to rebuild relations with neighbouring Venezuela. Of course the shadow of Uncle Sam still hangs over the region and more specifically over Colombian and Venezuelan relations. Colombia is Washington's closest ally in the region and has received $4.7 billion in US aid over the last 10 years in the name of the wars on drugs and terrorism. The Colombian rebel groups, numbering 10,000 between them, are on international lists of terrorism groups and up to their necks in drug trafficking.

For Venezuela, the US is still the evil empire, although this is less convincing under Barak Obama than it was under George W Bush. Last year Chavez froze diplomatic relations with Colombia over the agreement allowing US military access to seven Colombian bases and instituted a form of economic embargo on Colombian imports, forcing a drop of 70 per cent in bilateral trade.

It is to recuperate this that president-elect Santos wants to improve relations, also working on the premise that if relations are better he might have a better chance of broaching the issue of guerrilla presence in Venezuela. The US has called the presentation of evidence of this presence by Colombia very worrying, but so far has stayed on the sidelines.

While Chavez has frequently threatened to send his state-of-the-art Russian fighter planes into Colombia, he has another weapon against the US: the largest reserves of oil outside the Middle East. "If there was any armed aggression against Venezuela from Colombian territory or from anywhere else, promoted by the Yankee empire, we would suspend oil shipments to the United States, even if we had to eat stones here," he said earlier this week.

Yet despite all the bravado, neither the US or Colombia are rattled by the threats. With declining oil production (having reneged on deals with international oil companies Chavez is having trouble getting his black gold to the surface), Venezuela can ill-afford to stop selling to its best customer.

Colombia, while it is outclassed in technological terms by more than $2 billion worth of Russian hardware Chavez has bought, has a military three times the size of Venezuela's, battled hardened after 46 years of civil conflict.

There has been lots of noise and sabre rattling and there is certain to be a great deal more. But nobody believes that Venezuela and Colombia are about to come to blows.

The main beneficiaries from all this drama are of course the Marxist rebels. They may have to move their camps now, but their roots in Venezuela are likely to extend and deepen, providing them with the perfect launch pad and safe haven from which to plan the next stage of their campaign, this time against their hated enemy, Juan Manuel Santos.

l Jeremy McDermott reports for The Scotsman from South America.