Jane Fields: MDC speaker may have casting vote on Mugabe's succession

Zimbabwe's former opposition party is ecstatic that its candidate has been re-elected as parliamentary speaker, but hopes this presages an easy victory for Morgan Tsvangirai in elections later this year are misplaced.

Lovemore Moyo of Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) won re-election this week with 105 votes to Zanu-PF's 93.

The MDC expansively congratulated the nation on its "robust determination to defend the gains of the democratic struggle". On the streets, the mood was one of quiet excitement. "We rejoice," the manager of a department store whispered when the news finally filtered out (the pro-Zanu-PF state broadcaster had largely ignored it): a pavement shoe-mender begged to borrow a copy of the official Herald, returning it with a wry: "But now they'll arrest him." The authorities have already indicated they want to detain Moyo, warning he faces arrest on contempt charges for criticising a Supreme Court decision last month to nullify his 2008 election to the post. As of yesterday, Moyo was still free.

President Robert Mugabe's party had fought tooth-and-nail to wrest the speakership from the MDC. That's mostly because of the power the incumbent will wield if the 25-month-old coalition deal collapses and the 87-year-old president dies before elections are held. Legal experts say that if he dies while the coalition is still in place, Zanu-PF can nominate someone from the party to replace him. Zanu-PF cannot do this if Mugabe dies after the coalition has been dissolved: instead, the speaker will play a vital role in selecting MPs to make up an electoral college to pick an interim leader. Mr Mugabe's henchmen were not expecting an MDC speaker.

Mr Moyo's re-election was largely due to an abrupt change-of-heart from a breakaway MDC faction, now led by law professor Welshman Ncube. Unfortunately for Tsvangirai, he cannot count on a continued alliance between the two MDCs as Zimbabwe hurtles to elections. The smaller MDC faction has already branded Mr Tsvangirai's MDC "ungrateful" for its support

What Mr Tsvangirai's party can count on is Zanu-PF's ruthlessness. Spokesman Rugare Gumbo declared yesterday that Zanu-PF was now "focused on a win" in elections that Mr Mugabe wants held in August or September.

His white company grab is to be launched in all provinces as the party doles out firms for votes. Whites and foreigners are braced for an inevitable onslaught. One newspaper reported all white companies worth less than a dollar were to be "indigenised", even though the original legislation suggested companies worth less than $500,000 would not be affected.