James Mitchell: Scotland distinct in its Tory deficit and small effect on Westminster

THERE is a paradox at the heart of this election. Commentary has focused on electoral volatility, whether the Conservatives will have an overall majority, on the Lib Dem surge and the deep unpopularity of Labour.

It has been a very British affair with the leaders' debates setting the agenda. Rarely has the Scottish dimension been so insignificant. Yet, this poll confirms Scotland is different.

Opinion has been remarkably stable throughout the campaign in Scotland. There is no sign of a Cameron bounce. If he becomes prime minister, he will have little cause to thank his party here.

The electoral north-south divide that ended with the rise of New Labour is set to return. If Mr Cameron becomes prime minister on Friday, he will inherit the most testing fiscal crisis this country has had in generations and start out with far less support than Mrs Thatcher had in Scotland when she first became prime minister. The 2011 Scottish Parliament election campaign begins as the newly elected prime minister enters Downing Street. All the signs are that Labour will try to do outdo the SNP as anti-Tory protectors of Scottish interests. If Mr Cameron is prime minister, he will have to square the circle of public spending cuts and managing inter-governmental relations with little support in Scotland. It can be done but it will require considerable skill and policy innovation.

The poll confirms the sophistication of the Scottish electorate in its willingness to distinguish between Westminster and Holyrood preferences. The SNP has still not found a distinct voice in Westminster elections.

It also suggests that next year's Scottish elections will be dominated by the SNP and Labour.

The danger for the Conservatives next year is that their role will be as a political Aunt Sally. If there is another Westminster election close to next May, then that backdrop may help Labour replace the SNP in Holyrood. The prospect of combining Westminster and Holyrood elections might help Labour in Holyrood but would assist the SNP in Westminster. Labour will not relish opposition but knows that opposition in Westminster will make it easier to win in Holyrood, though that depends on the party keeping united after what looks set to be a very poor British election result.

• James Mitchell is professor of politics at Strathclyde University.