It will be a different story if Mr Brown takes over at No 10

INCREASES in tolls for the Forth Road Bridge are usually controversial enough without the intervention of the Chancellor of the Exchequer. But the plight of motorists who faced being asked to pay up to £4 to cross an increasingly troubled bridge over water was put in the shade this week by the politics of the situation.

The Scottish Executive's announcement that a decision on the toll increase had been deferred, pending reports on the condition of the bridge, was quickly followed by a statement from Gordon Brown, welcoming the fact that plans for higher tolls had been scrapped.

The following day, Executive sources explained no formal decision had been taken because ministers were following the proper procedures, but pointed out the political reality was that a 300 per cent increase in tolls could not be justified. Mr Brown was able to speak more freely than ministers who had technically yet to make a decision, but it was fair to conclude the 4 toll was "dead in the water".

Political opponents were quick to claim Mr Brown had been interfering in Executive business and portrayed First Minister Jack McConnell as bending to the Chancellor's will.

There is no doubt Mr Brown's own constituency interest and, more immediately, the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election on February 9, lent a political dynamic to the issue.

But the Executive's account is certainly plausible. Indeed, the Evening News reported more than six weeks ago that while ministers were ready to back the principle of variable tolls according to the time of day, with discounts for drivers with passengers, they were not likely to approve the inflation-busting price rise.

However, this week's Forth Road Bridge row may be a foretaste of what we can expect if Gordon Brown finally achieves his ambition of becoming Prime Minister when Tony Blair steps down sometime before the next election.

Despite being born here and going to school at Fettes, Mr Blair has never felt comfortable in Scotland. So long as devolution is working well and the Scots continue to elect a good number of Labour MPs to Westminster, he has been happy to let Scotland get on with it.

But it will be a different story if Mr Brown takes over at Number Ten. The Chancellor already regards Scotland as his fiefdom and Mr Blair has allowed him to dominate Labour's operations north of the Border. Once Mr Brown takes over the reins of government, Scotland can expect more attention from Downing Street rather than less.

Mr Brown and the First Minister had until recently what has been described as a "glacial" relationship, following Mr McConnell's backing for Mr Blair as John Smith's successor in 1994. But last year, the pair pragmatically put their bad blood behind them. Their aides privately insisted the two men were "ideologically on the same ground" and argued a Brown premiership would mean "more understanding of Scotland". But as the Iron Chancellor, Mr Brown has shown how determined he can be to get his way and there is little doubt he would apply the same determination as Prime Minister - and Scotland would be firmly in his sights.

If Tory peer Lord Baker has his way, Mr Brown and all his fellow Scottish MPs would be banned from voting at Westminster on purely English matters. Lord Baker's Bill has no chance of success, but it shows that the UK's constitutional arrangements are far from settled.

Tensions between Holyrood and Westminster are inevitable and might well increase with Mr Brown as Prime Minister. It will be important for both sides to keep personal and political interests in check and ensure that decisions are taken in the best interests of Scotland.

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