Ian Swanson: Labour leads but is Iain Gray ready?

HIS party has a ten-point lead over the SNP in the latest polls, but only nine per cent of voters say Labour leader Iain Gray is best qualified to be First Minister.

With the Scottish Parliament elections looming next May, the East Lothian MSP has just eight months to change people's judgement of him.

Labour is hoping for a return to power at Holyrood, but the result could well be close and no-one is taking anything for granted.

In theory, it should not take much to overturn the SNP's one-seat advantage gained in 2007.

But in the aftermath of that election, the gap between the parties widened with the Nationalists' popularity rising further while Labour's fortunes plummeted, not least because of the row over donations to Wendy Alexander's leadership campaign. So Labour was left with more ground to make up than the figures from the last election suggest.

Since replacing Ms Alexander two years ago, Iain Gray has brought the party some much-needed stability with solid and sometimes impressive performances at First Minister's Questions.

The party saw off SNP challenges to win the Glenrothes and Glasgow North East by-elections.

Despite losing this year's general election, Labour did well in Scotland and the party is still riding high in the opinion polls.

Holyrood elections are different from Westminster ones - for voters, the choice between Labour and the SNP here in Scotland is not as stark as between Labour and the Tories at UK level.

Given Alex Salmond's dominance of Scottish politics for the past three and a half years - some say he is really the only "big beast" around - the SNP is likely to cast the election as a presidential contest, telling voters the key choice is who they want as First Minister.

So what can Labour do about poll ratings which show 31 per cent backing for Mr Salmond as best qualified for the top job, while Mr Gray is level-pegging with Tory leader Annabel Goldie on nine per cent?

Labour is quick to point out the findings come from a poll two months ago which was commissioned by the SNP itself.

They claim Mr Salmond's 31 per cent support is down from 53 per cent in a previous poll.

One source says: "Alex Salmond is tarnished goods now. He made a fool of himself by saying the SNP would win 20 seats at the general election and now he has bottled it over his referendum plans. The Scottish public is turned off the SNP."

Another Labour insider takes comfort in the party's positive ratings. "Maybe Iain doesn't need to worry too much, so long as Labour is ahead.

"You might assume people had factored in the leadership in answering the question on which party they will vote for."

Mr Gray's aides say he got a positive reception when he took to the road for a summer tour of the country.

In terms of profile, there is no doubt he could do with a boost.

The claim that he is "Gray by name, gray by nature" has been repeated so often it has become a cliche.

But Mr Gray's career before he entered politics - bus conductor, teacher, aid worker - is more interesting and varied than that of most politicians - including, arguably, Mr Salmond, who was a civil servant and then Royal Bank of Scotland economist.

No other MSP has had first hand experience of teaching in Mozambique in the midst of the country's civil war, then as an Oxfam worker witnessing some of the world's gravest crises.

"Iain is very straight and honest," says a party source. "He has integrity and good judgement.

"When Iain took over, Labour was 16 points behind the SNP but since then we have seen ten, even 14 point, leads."

But sometimes the party has not helped raise its leaders' profile.

For a while, Mr Gray found himself playing second fiddle to the then Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy, who took the lead role on most issues in the run-up to the Westminster elections.

That has changed now the elections are over and Labour is out of power. But is it too late?

"Iain has to sell himself, but he will get more opportunity to do that as the election approaches," says one MSP, who is not convinced that Mr Salmond is as popular as the SNP likes to think.

"The SNP will try to turn it into a presidential contest and no doubt we will see a Salmond charm offensive over the next few months - but 31 per cent is hardly an overwhelming endorsement.

"Alex Salmond is a bit like Tony Blair - he provokes strong emotions for and against."

In 2007, the SNP sought to maximise its vote by using the words "Alex Salmond for First Minister" on ballot papers. That won't be allowed next year, but it will still be the party's underlying message.

Iain Gray knows it is pointless trying to outdo Mr Salmond at his own style of politics - he wouldn't want to and it wouldn't work. If Labour is to take back control at Holyrood it needs to present Mr Gray as a different kind of politician, but one who would be just as credible as First Minister.

FROM MOZAMBIQUE TO MINISTER

Born:

June 7, 1957, Edinburgh.

Educated:

George Watson's College

Edinburgh University

Moray House College of Education

Worked:

Maths and physics teacher, Gracemount High School

Teacher, Mozambique

Campaigns director, Oxfam

Labour MSP, Edinburgh Pentlands, 1999-2003

Deputy Minister, Health 1999-2000

Deputy Minister, Justice 2000-1

Minister for Social Justice 2001-2

Minister for Enterprise, Transport & Lifelong Learning 2002-3

Special Adviser to Scottish Office

Labour MSP, East Lothian, 2007-present

Labour leader, 2008-present