Expect more autonomy even without independence

A DISTINCTIVE feature of the 2010 General Election has been the growing sense of difference between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

While a Conservative revival may have triggered seat changes in England, such a swing has appeared to be more muted in Scotland. This – coupled with the fact that much of the televised party leaders' debates were devoted to matters such as health and education, which are devolved to the Scottish Parliament – gives the impression of a growing political disconnection, even if there is no uplift in the polls for independence.

Political strategists in Scotland will now be turning their attention to the Holyrood parliament election in 2011 and how this might be affected by the Westminster campaign and its result. It would be surprising if there were not pressure for a prime-time Scottish Parliament leaders' debate, given the huge impact that the televised debates have had across the UK. It may well be that these have now become an accepted part of the "discovery process" of politics, however much it entails a loss of attention to the range and composition of candidates being fielded.

The elections next year are also likely to coincide with a greater focus on public expenditure control and reduction, with the prospect of the spending axe falling on budgets from 2011 onwards. For a devolved parliament with little control on revenue raising, this will make the political campaigning all the more different from previous Holyrood "giveaway" campaigns fought against the background of rising budget resources. Now the emphasis will of necessity have to fall on how the parties plan to live within much tighter fiscal constraints and to set out which areas should be saved from cuts (if possible) and which are likely to yield savings.

Beneath this there is the more profound issue of the future of the Barnett Formula and the prospect of reform, possibly to a system based on an updated "needs assessment". That may not be at all unfavourable to Scotland if such assessment includes issues such as social deprivation and demographics (an ageing population, for example, would require more resources).

And there is likely to be another dynamic at work. English MPs are likely to come under pressure from constituents for a more equitable allocation of funds between the different nations and regions of the UK, while others would like to see a move to restrict Scottish and Welsh MPS voting on English-only matters.

This is not as straightforward as it sounds, but may ironically encourage the new administration at Westminster to move towards a federal solution and consider granting more tax-raising powers to the Scottish parliament. Centre-Left coalitions forged on a platform of minimum cuts in public expenditure would then be faced with the need to raise more money in taxes. We may thus be on the brink of an era of problematic change greater and more wide-reaching than anything envisaged in the battle just ended.