Ewan Crawford: The decades pass, the choices stay the same

READING a biography of Alex Salmond recently it struck me how little, despite devolution and the rise of the SNP, some of the fundamentals in Scottish politics have changed.

When the First Minister was beginning to make his name, the contest was just starting in earnest between the SNP and Labour over who was best placed to protect Scotland from the "evil" Tories.

Fast-forward 30 years and this May's election campaign is shaping up along similar lines, albeit minus the factory sit-ins and civil disobedience.

Surveys such as this must fill the Conservatives with despair. It is clear that, as Lord Ashcroft found in England, policy positions that otherwise might appear acceptable to a substantial part of the electorate, become toxic when associated with the party - only more so in Scotland. For the Tories the task is not so much to argue over individual policies but to somehow earn the right to a hearing.

For the two main parties there is little in these social attitudes to suggest any major immediate re-think. The fact that a huge majority of Scots still believe the income gap is too large chimes, for example, with the SNP's idea of a social democratic contract. Indeed it might be argued that given the squeeze on living standards it's something of a surprise that 40 per cent of people still believe in higher taxes.

But little of this will filter through to the coming election campaign. Labour's current popularity in the polls has little to do with the performance and policies of Iain Gray and Andy Kerr (perhaps thankfully for them) and more to do with Labour as a refuge from David Cameron. The SNP will try to counter by presenting a choice between Tory cuts and the opportunities of independence.

That is why the current debate over tax powers is so critical. While Scottish funding is controlled by Westminster it seems unlikely we will escape from the strait-jacket debate of who is best placed to stand up (against London) for Scotland. With greater financial powers, our politicians would be forced to address and respond to the more nuanced social attitudes revealed by this survey.

• Ewan Crawford was private secretary to SNP leader John Swinney