Everything still to play for as polls put Labour in front, for now

IS A Labour election catastrophe and a sweeping SNP triumph quite the sure-fire bet it has looked for most of this year? Just as the stock market can spring surprises and behave in the most improbable manner, so, too, can political fortunes. According to an analysis of voting intentions in Scotland, Labour is still marginally ahead with 32 per cent of the vote, followed by the SNP with 30 per cent.

This would suggest that, even though the Labour share of the vote is well down on the 2005 general election result and the SNP has made impressive gains, SNP First Minister Alex Salmond will not succeed in his ambition to secure 20 nationalist seats at the next election.

The research, by polling company ComRes, is drawn from an analysis of 1,000 voters in unpublished Scottish data from UK polls in June and July. It will bring little comfort to the Conservatives, with little sign of a powerful "Cameron effect" north of the Border. Indeed the Conservative vote, at 17 per cent, is up just 1.2 per cent on its 2005 general election showing. The Liberal Democrats, at 15 per cent, are down 7.5 per cent. John Curtice, Scotland's leading opinion poll analyst, reckons that, on a uniform swing, the SNP would pick up only three more seats from Labour – in Dundee West, Ochil and Kilmarnock.

So: might we be on course for a substantial shift, but not a seismic one? You do not need to be a Professor of Opinion Poll Caveats to grasp that an analysis of 1,000 voters, undertaken almost a year ahead of the likely date of an election, should be treated with circumspection and that projections of a uniform swing need to be handled with caution.

Arguably the greatest caveat is that we are about to move into a potentially stormy autumn – both politically and financially. The autumn ahead is set to bring more than a sharp cooling of the weather. Even though the intensity of recession may be subsiding, unemployment is set to continue rising well into next year, with all the attendant problems of financial hardship and mortgage default. At the same time, the UK, with a massive 175 billion plus borrowing requirement, is highly vulnerable to a nasty fall in investor sentiment that could hit the pound and put pressure on the government for immediate action on the public finances.

As if these headwinds were not enough, deep unease remains within the Labour Party over the performance of its leadership, with serious misgivings as to whether Gordon Brown can generate vitally needed recovery momentum.

These are deeply uncertain and febrile times that lie ahead. Labour has the potential, particularly under a fresh leadership, to claw back core support if the economy gets no worse and those elusive 'green shoots' start to appear early next year. For its part, the SNP can capitalise as the party opposed to spending cuts. What a timely reminder from ComRes that there is still everything to play for.