Euro moribund

What are the odds on the euro collapsing? About 10-20 per cent, if you believe the bond markets. And why? Because the low interest rate that suits Germany does not suit the poorer countries. First up is debt-ridden Greece. The European Central Bank wants the Greeks to raise 54bn this year to keep afloat, most of it in the next six months. No chance.

Will the EU rescue Greece? Some 70 per cent of Germans oppose the use of public money to bail out countries in financial difficulties. And if the EU does bail out Greece, then Portugal, Ireland and Spain will want the same.

Dropping the euro means expulsion from the European Union as well. The European Central Bank warns members they risk being cast into Icelandic oblivion. Some see this as a threat; some a promise. It seems increasingly unlikely the euro can survive.

BARRY TIGHE

Hermon Hill

London E11