Eddie Barnes: Whatever deals are done on Scotland's budget today, the parties will have an eye on May's election

AT LEAST we know where the Greens stand. The party's two MSPs have long since declared that they think John Swinney's spending plans for next year are for the recycling bin. For everyone else, however, it is still up in the air. Meeting today to decide whether to back or oppose the minority SNP government's budget for next year, the Scottish Parliament remains decidedly undecided.

However, as the discussions continued last night, there were some assumptions that were reasonably safe to make.

As they have for the last three years, the Scottish Conservatives are likely to come on board, having backed the SNP government's proposals for a council tax freeze and the promise of more police on the streets.

However, even if the Tories support the SNP today, Mr Swinney will still require either the Lib Dems or Labour to – at the very least – abstain. As of writing, it looked as if the proposal to the Liberals, a promise of more bursaries and places at further education colleges, will prove to be enough to ensure they do not vote against the budget. That would be enough to get the budget through, regardless of what position Labour eventually decides to take.

Leaving all that aside, the bigger question mark is over how the parties emerge from today's poker game as they head towards election, now less than three months away. All will want to ensure that, as of tonight, they have used the budget to ensure they have the most amount of chips available for the campaign.

For the Lib Dems, a budget deal should help; after months when they have been getting the political equivalent of a lynching over Nick Clegg's U-turn on tuition fees, the extra support for further education may draw some of the sting.

Equally, for the Tories, a deal would allow the party to once again declare it has influence on affairs in Scotland, and a positive impact on those favourite conservative issues of law and order, and tax.

So what about Labour and the SNP? For the SNP, an agreed budget today would lock down all their key election messages – particularly on the council tax. It would help reinforce a general sense of reassurance about their competence. And there is also the prospect of a tactical win over Labour. Mr Swinney is understood to have offered Labour cash for apprenticeships.

It is a potential bear trap; if Iain Gray knocks the offer back, and opposes the budget, the Nationalists will enjoy pointing out that Labour has refused to vote for one of its own policies.

But could it be that Mr Gray has a counter-attack lined up? Labour sources were suggesting yesterday that, if elected in May, they will open up the budget this summer to insert their own policies, including their policies on jobs.

This would not be an "emergency budget" as carried out by George Osborne last year, but it would mean in-year changes to spending plans nonetheless.