Eddie Barnes: Statistics mean different things according to your manifesto

THE old line about lies, damned lies and statistics is always appropriate in politics. Yesterday, at Holyrood, it was more appropriate than ever.

In politics, the best lies aren't actually lies at all. In fact, the golden rule is never – ever – to lie in the first place. The trick is to be much subtler – by dissembling, distracting and selecting your facts with care.

The SNP government is currently attempting to build the case for tough new laws on alcohol misuse and has won plaudits from health campaigners and commentators for having had the courage to take on one of the country's main causes of ill health and social disorder. Yesterday, two new pieces of statistics were published, which at first glance didn't appear to help.

First, homicide figures were published, showing a noticeable decrease in the number of murders last year. Then statistics on alcohol-related hospital cases were released. The top line was that the number of cases last year actually fell, from 43,000 to just under 42,000.

The figures could quite easily have been spun into evidence that Scotland was on a path towards a safer and sober future. But the Scottish Government has a policy to sell. Within the homicide statistics, the figures showed that two out of every five cases were caused by people on drink or drugs. Justice secretary Kenny MacAskill thus declared they "showed that urgent action was required to deal with Scotland's drinking culture".

And within the alcohol figures, health secretary Nicola Sturgeon chose to highlight how it was still 9 per cent up on five years ago. At the same time, separate figures on liver disease were released, showing a small rise in incidence over the last year. Thus, the figures which actually showed a fall in alcohol-related hospital cases – were "shocking", said Miss Sturgeon.

Labour was at it every bit as much yesterday, choosing to highlight how the homicide figures showed how a half of the cases involved a blade. Not without coincidence, Labour is hoping to characterise the SNP as "soft on crime" by campaigning for a mandatory prison sentence for possession of a knife.

The moral of the story is that the prodigious amount of numbers churned out by Scotland's world-leading health statistics department (known as the Information and Statistics Division) usually contains something for everybody, whether they be journalists or politicians.

With the latter, it is helpful to check up on their manifesto, before you read their numbers.