Duncan Hamilton: SNP could get by with a little help from some 'friends'

AS IT turns out, learning lessons from the Welsh is not confined to the rugby field.

Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalists, have this weekend given us a timely reminder that there is much more to the debate on the future of Britain than simply resolving the question of Scottish independence. Plaid kick-started its General Election campaign with an approach which presents some big opportunities for Scotland in the years ahead.

Traditionally, Westminster elections are presented as a choice between Labour and the Tories as the two parties of government, with the option of the Liberal Democrats for those who want to register meek, if worthy, protest. But this time, two things have changed. First, there is a real prospect of a hung parliament, with the opportunities that brings. To be fair, Alex Salmond has been making that argument for some time in Scotland, and Plaid have now adopted it in Wales.

But the argument deserves to be explored more deeply, because this isn't about just Scotland or Wales acting in isolation, but rather about the potential collective ability of the nations and regions of the United Kingdom to seize the possibilities of a hung parliament and reboot a Westminster system and mentality which grudgingly granted devolution a decade ago.

If ten SNP MPs (half the party's stated target) were elected together with five Plaid MPs, that is a very useful block. But add in the 18 seats in Northern Ireland and you create real political clout. Not an official grouping, not an alliance formalised in any parliamentary way, but rather a coalition of shared interest on a few vital areas common to each devolved area, such as the vexed question of future public spending.

Why now? Well, that is where it gets interesting because what makes the coming election unique is that the prospect of a hung parliament (which a general election has not delivered since 1974) looks set to collide with a new and unmistakable trend throughout the UK towards strengthened devolved government and rapidly emerging national and regional identity. That matters enormously because the focus of those MPs from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who, crucially, are also in power back home, will not be London. Even in 1996, which was the last time there was a Westminster government without a Commons majority (under John Major), there was, of course, no devolved government anywhere in the UK.

By contrast, the 2010 election is held against a post-devolution backdrop where the momentum is exclusively in the direction of the devolved parliament and assemblies of the UK growing in profile, stature and importance. And this is about much more than just the SNP or Plaid Cymru. In Northern Ireland, this election is in the context of all parties reaching a deal to devolve policing and justice. Just as happened in Wales and Scotland, the Northern Ireland Assembly is becoming more of a focus for Northern Ireland politicians than Westminster. Add to that the medium term inevitability of a Scottish referendum and the recent decision by all four parties in the Welsh Assembly to coalesce around a mechanism for triggering a referendum in Wales on full powers in devolved areas, and it is beyond dispute that the devolved institutions are advancing at the expense of central government.

Post devolution, to borrow from former US House Speaker Tip O'Neill, all politics is indeed local. The ramifications of that shift are important, especially at this time of financial Armageddon. Undeniably, the greatest priority for each devolved area will be the level of spending at a local level and those decisions remain at the Treasury. But are the devolved governments smart enough to unite and turn the screw?

Certainly, the potential exists. I remember going to Belfast to attend the British-Irish Council with the First Minister in 2007. The sense of common purpose among the delegations from Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland was based not on some misty eyed Celtic fraternity, but on the hard realities of political priority.

Sure it won't be easy; the Conservative government may need Unionist votes from Northern Ireland and Sinn Fein maintain a self-denying ordinance on voting. Moreover, there are vast policy differences between the parties of the devolved administrations; the DUP and the SNP for example probably aren't perceived as natural allies. But so what? Co-operate where it suits, diverge where it doesn't. The parties at Holyrood, Stormont and the National Assembly have been doing that for years.

But Plaid have gone further and specified exactly what Welsh Nationalist MPs will seek to achieve in the hung parliament, such as protecting the budget of the Welsh Assembly and specific schemes for pensioners and businesses. The details are not important – what matters is that they are giving the electorate specific reasons to vote Plaid in a Westminster election. The SNP should do the same. Not only does it focus efforts for 2010, but, almost as importantly, it develops that habit of repeat SNP voting, which is a key priority for the party on the back of the 2007 breakthrough and ahead of 2011.

It used to be said on Scottish doorsteps that the SNP were irrelevant in a Westminster election because "only Labour can beat the Tories". No-one believes Labour can beat the Tories in 2010, so attention will inevitably turn throughout the UK to how each area can protect local spending, local jobs and local services. Peter Robinson, Alex Salmond and Ieuan Wyn Jones may reflect that Tony Blair was maybe right after all – we are, indeed, stronger together, weaker apart.