Clegg-mania could be Lib Dems' undoing during Scottish visit

THERE is a fine line between confidence and over-confidence and it is this line the Liberal Democrats and their newly popular leader, Nick Clegg, have to tread between now and polling day on Thursday.

A sign of the confidence in the party comes today when Mr Clegg comes to Scotland and eschews a visit to a seat like Edinburgh South, once considered a key marginal and now, apparently, in the bag.

Instead, the Lib Dem leader is to press the flesh in Glasgow North where his party now believes the Clegg bounce from his presentational success in the three Prime Ministerial debates gives them a chance of winning.

It is always wise before an election to take statements from parties with a very large pinch of salt, but the Lib Dem claim that the mood for change may help them unseat incumbent Labour MPs has a certain credibility.

If the tide is turning in their direction then a victory for them in Glasgow North would be symbolic. Parts of the seat were once held by Roy Jenkins at the height of the rise of the SDP and, as it includes much of the city's university hinterland, it is a constituency with a significant small 'l' liberal tradition.

Mr Clegg's strategy of campaign in seats once thought of as unwinnable is also in contrast to the approach of the Tory leader, David Cameron, who is also in Scotland today.

At the time of writing, his party was unable to say where he would be though it is unlikely that he will be campaigning in seats which for the Conservatives are the equivalent of Glasgow North for the Lib Dems.

However, the second part of the confidence equation for the Lib Dems is the possibility of getting ahead of themselves and ahead of the those voters who have still to decide; of believing their own spin; of becoming seduced by the political hysteria generated by 'Clegg-mania'.

There are dangers in this for the Lib Dems. The first is that on the ground their opponents in places like Edinburgh South, a seat held by Labour, may use Mr Clegg's failure to return there to their advantage, seeking to persuade voters there that the Lib Dems were arrogantly ignoring them.

The second is that the public throughout the UK will sense that behind the 'not-like-the-other-two' rhetoric of the Lib Dems and Mr Clegg there is a hard-nosed, calculating, political machine which is very much like Labour and the Tories in the way it operates.

The third is that in claiming that they could win 20 seats here, as one Lib Dem source did yesterday, they will be perceived to be becoming just too triumphalist and that voters, who do not like politicians to get above themselves, will wreak last-minute revenge.

As they arrive in Scotland the challenge for Mr Clegg is to demonstrate that confidence has not become over-confidence, and for Mr Cameron to confound the critics by proving that the Tories are relevant north of the Border.