Budget day – not election day – should be PM's primary focus

HARDLY had the Office for National Statistics announced that the British economy had grown a bit more than it first thought during the last three months of 2009, than rumours began to sweep Westminster that Gordon Brown was poised to call a general election on Monday. Indeed, one blogger excitedly claimed that the BBC was so convinced by the gossip that it had cancelled all leave for its political staff. Is the excitement justified?

The economic news was good, but hardly overwhelming. The upwards revision of economic growth in the last quarter of 2009 from 0.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent implies an annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent, which is not the sort of rebound to justify rushing to the wine merchants for champagne. Compared to the latest figures on the American economy, which grew at an annual rate of 5.9 per cent in the last quarter, it looks rather feeble.

Moreover, there are many who fear that the first three months of this year will show a lapse back into recession. The ending of the VAT reduction at the start of January looks to have depressed retail sales and the record cold weather of this and last month will be a further brake on the economy.

This second factor is primarily why election speculation has suddenly sprung up. It appears to be the case that as the economy has gradually dragged itself out of the doldrums, so the stock of the Labour government has risen in the polls and that of the Conservatives has sunk. One poll published yesterday has the Conservative UK lead reduced to just five points, in line with other polls – and far away from the double-digit lead David Cameron needs to be assured of becoming prime minister.

Thus the thinking is that there is unlikely to be a better time for Mr Brown to call the election than now. Polling day would come before the release of the next set of economic growth figures in the last week of April, and while he would still be at risk of not securing an overall majority, his chances of leading the largest party in the Commons and remaining Prime Minister would be better than Mr Cameron's. It would also avoid the need to have a Budget.

This, however, would be a mistake. The most disappointing aspect of December's pre-Budget report was that it failed to lay out a clear plan for dealing with the ballooning public spending deficit and national debt. Such a plan is necessary, not just to reassure international opinion that the British economy can be put on course to a full and sustainable recovery, but also to give voters a clear choice. Holding a budget would also compel the Conservatives to set out their plans in some detail.

Without such programmes, the election choice facing voters would be in danger of becoming a guessing game. That would be an insult to the taxpayers who have shelled out billions to support the banks and keep the economy from collapsing into depression.

While the political temptation to cut and run now is obvious, Mr Brown should, in the national interest, resist it and announce the Budget date on Monday, not election day.