Brown may limp on as PM, but Blairites have damaged his party

After a truly extraordinary day at Westminster yesterday in which he faced a demand for a vote of confidence on his leadership, it appears that Gordon Brown may, for now, be able borrow the quip made by his predecessor. It seems that the call by former cabinet ministers Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt for a secret ballot within the Parliamentary Labour Party is unlikely to be met.

But if Mr Brown can now declare that he is "going on", there can be do doubt that this intervention will ensure that he is seen as a Prime Minister limping, wounded, towards an election.

As often in politics, the call by Blairites Mr Hoon and Ms Hewitt, will have been inspired by a mixture of internal faction fighting and principle.

The first is a legacy of what Blairites still see as Mr Brown's supporters' campaigns to oust the former prime minister, the second a genuine concern for Labour's fortunes at the next election under it current leader.

This is a potent combination and in their desire to wreak revenge, the Blairites can cite a great deal of evidence in their favour, though outside observers are more likely to conclude that both sides deserve each other.

Far more important than the latest episode of Labour's internal bloodletting is the effect that this has on the country and on the election.

As far as the United Kingdom is concerned it is deeply concerning that we have a Prime Minister attempting to lead the country out of recession who does not have the confidence of a substantial number of his own MPs.

For, although they may not want to follow Mr Hoon and Ms Hewitt as far as forcing a secret ballot, it is clear that should one be held, Mr Brown might not win a majority.

Were that to happen, Labour would have a new leader and the country a second prime minister who – though we have a parliamentary not a presidential system – voters had not endorsed.

But if there is no vote, where does that leave us? If any good comes of this for Mr Brown's party, it will be that the conflict between the "core vote", class war advocates and those seeking to maintain the new Labour coalition is resolved – in favour of the latter faction if the party is to stand a chance of re-election.

However, with this unresolved, there can be only one winner after yesterday's remarkable events: David Cameron and the Conservatives. Mr Hoon and Ms Hewitt attacked Mr Brown just when the Tories were faltering over both the issue of tax and marriage and the heavily personalised, Cameron-centred strategy.

It is difficult not to conclude that Mr Hoon and Ms Hewitt have only increased the likelihood of Mr Brown being heavily defeated at the next election, Labour being plunged into full-scale civil war, and Mr Cameron becoming prime minister.