Brian Love: G20 a sideshow as French swing against Sarkozy

Ahead of elections in France in April next year, the conservative French president, who turns 56 today, has to deal not only with dismal popularity ratings but also a rejuvenated far-right leadership and a potentially lethal socialist challenger.

Mr Sarkozy did shine the last time he combined national and international duties, as European Union president when the global financial crisis came to a head in 2008. But analysts doubt he can impress voters in the same way again.

"It's good in theory for a president to take care of world affairs," said Paul Bacot, professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Lyon. "The problem is - he must also deliver, not just make France's voice heard or defend grand causes and countries… it's clear that even if things get done, they will be limited, with effects over the long term.

A survey released this week indicated that 70 per cent of voters doubt Mr Sarkozy will secure G20 success, which is roughly the same proportion that disapproves of him as French leader, and also of his economic strategy.

Mr Sarkozy summoned hundreds of diplomats and journalists to a news conference this week on his G20 agenda, saying it was time to better regulate markets where food and other commodities are traded, time to consider a new monetary order after decades of dollar domination, and time, too, to consider a tax on financial transactions to meet development aid goals.

Several things were striking beyond the content of his agenda. Firstly, he had announced the same basic goals six months earlier, leaving the impression things have not changed and will not change any time soon.

Secondly, and perhaps consequently, his news conference generated little of the buzz he clearly hoped for in staging such a big show.

Thirdly, while the event was supposed to focus on G20 affairs, he spent much of the time defending himself and his government over the time it took to back the popular revolt that ousted Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, the iron-fisted ruler of Tunisia, a former French colony.

There were times, early in Mr Sarkozy's term, when the magic did work. In 2008, after marrying former supermodel Carla Bruni, he exploited France's presidency of the EU to orchestrate responses to a banking crisis before racing off to play international mediator between Russia and Georgia.

"He has appeared several times on the international stage since 2008, but what is missing is a sense of credibility, that he can bring initiatives to a conclusion.There's a sense of fatigue about his role on the international stage," said Franois Miquet-Marty, political analyst at the Viavoice polling agency.

The problem is not all of his own doing. It was much easier for G20 economic powers as different as China, India and the United States to see eye-to-eye when there was one goal - to prevent the world sliding into depression.

Now, the same disparate group that joined hands to fight recession faces a far harder slog trying to agree new rules and regulations to prevent another meltdown of the kind that sparked the worst slump since the Second World War in 2007-2009.

Moreover, Mr Sarkozy has a demanding home audience to deal with. The French are more opposed to free market capitalism than the inhabitants of Communist China and other advanced economies, according to an opinion poll this week that suggested one in three believed it was time to ditch it.

Additionally, Mr Sarkozy has to contend with an ominously big opinion poll lead for a potential presidential challenger in the shape of International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

Numerous surveys have suggested that the French socialist, who starred as a finance minister in the boom years of the late 1990s, would crush Mr Sarkozy in an election if it were held now.

Mr Sarkozy has not announced he will run for another term, and the Socialists will not pick their runner until late in the year, which condemns the president and a man who could take his job to work together in the meantime.