Barak Barfi: Egypt may make gestures of Arab unity but Saudi interests will guide the policies

IN THE months since Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's resignation, his successors have signalled a shift in foreign policy by reaching out to former adversaries. Egypt has welcomed Iranian diplomats and embraced the Palestinian group, Hamas. Many interpret such moves as clear evidence of Egypt's desire for a diplomacy that is not subordinate to American interests.

But Mubarak never entirely fitted his detractors' portrayal of him as an American lackey. In fact, his desire to please his Saudi Arabian benefactors, not the US, was paramount.

Since the end of the October 1973 war, Arab-Israeli peace has been a cornerstone of America's Middle East agenda. The US often looked to Egypt to play a lead role in this. And, when it suited him, Mubarak played his part. When the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat humiliated Mubarak before the US secretary of state by refusing to sign an appendice to an Israeli-Palestinian accord brokered in Cairo, Mubarak told him, "Sign it, you son of a dog!"

But Mubarak had a rocky relationship with Israel, and held America's ally at arm's length. For almost ten of his 30 years in office, Egypt had no ambassador in Tel Aviv. Mubarak never made an official visit to Israel, and he frequently refused Israeli prime ministers' requests to come to Cairo.

Instead, his relationship with the Saudis usually determined his foreign policy. When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and threatened to attack Saudi, Mubarak dispatched troops to defend the kingdom.

He refused to acquiesce in US plans to isolate Libya in the 1990s for its involvement in the downing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie. Instead of ostracising Col Muammar Gaddafi, Mubarak welcomed him to Cairo. After the UN imposed a flight ban against Libya in 1992, its land crossings with Egypt proved vital.

Egypt's new leaders have inherited Mubarak's dilemma - how to lead the Arab world without angering its Saudi benefactors. For this reason, the Egyptian-Iranian rapprochement will yield more photo opportunities than tangible results. On opposite sides of religious and ethnic divides, a close relationship would seem unlikely. And, with Egypt in need of massive financial aid, its leaders can ill afford to alienate the Saudis, who view Iran, not Israel, as the gravest threat to stability.

Egypt is entering a new era. But Saudi interests will continue to weigh heavily on Egyptian foreign policy. And that means preserving the status quo.

l Barak Barfi is research fellow at New America Foundation.