Analysis: Lockerbie affair will have little effect on long-term relations with the US

THERE is a case for saying the Lockerbie bombing was the most important terrorist event in recent history before 9/11.

Not only does it remain the most lethal terrorist attack ever to take place in a European country - its death toll higher even than the Madrid and London bombings - but the circumstances in which it occurred were remarkable at the time.

There were, for a start, its international repercussions (the 270 who died came from 21 countries, more than two-thirds were American) and its shocking impact on an aviation industry whose security standards, according to Professor Paul Wilkinson, were "hopelessly outdated".

In many ways, it foreshadowed the sweeping changes in international counter-terrorism which would follow 9/11.

When, more than a decade later, two men were finally brought to trial, the circumstances remained unprecedented.

International terrorism cases always pose legal and evidential challenges, but the Lockerbie case was quite exceptional. Consider the numerous jurisdictions involved, America's fraught history with Libya (only removed from the US State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism in 2006) and sheer logistic complexity of staging the trial itself.

There were questions at the time as to whether Scots law was even capable of handling such a challenge.

Putting all the anger and emotion to one side, the problem today is the same as it was then.

In theory, Scotland does not have international relations. In spite of First Minister Alex Salmond's determination to raise the country's international profile, the Scottish Government has no formal devolved powers relating to foreign affairs.

But by having an independent legal system, the country is in a position to originate decisions which have international repercussions. In so far as what was once called the "global war on terror" is understood as an international effort to harmonise national counter-terrorism, Scotland is its own player on the global stage. Or is it?

That's the irony behind what looks like a Conservative and Unionist Prime Minister's interest in passing the buck for Megrahi's release to the Scottish Government. It implicitly seems to grant a measure of legitimacy to Salmond's attempts to carve out a role for himself on the international stage - which have included several trips in an official capacity to the United States, discussing issues such as the economy and renewable energy.

What impact the event will have on ordinary Scots remains to be seen. The US is Scotland's largest overseas trading partner, and Scotland benefits substantially from American tourism.

Long-term damage to Scotland's expensively cultivated brand would seem, then, to be something to worry about. But France recovered quickly from its 2003 nadir in American estimation over the Iraq war.

Considering even American politicians seem to have missed the distinction between Scotland's role and that of the UK - as calls by Senator Chuck Schumer to restore "the integrity of the British government" suggest - it seems unlikely the anger against Scotland will be protracted.

Javier Argomaniz, Donald Holbrook, Gilbert Ramsay and Emma Leonard Javier. The authors are based at the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St Andrews.