Alex Orr: If there is to be an axe to split the coalition, Europe will provide it

THE election of a Conservative-Liberal Democrat government will clearly have a major impact on the relationship between the UK and the European Union.

Under the coalition agreement, there is to be no further transfer of sovereignty or powers over the course of the next parliament, and there will be an amendment to the 1972 European Communities Act so that any proposed future treaty that transferred areas of power, or competences, would be subject to a referendum on that treaty – a "referendum lock". It will also examine the case for a United Kingdom Sovereignty Bill to make it clear that ultimate authority remains with parliament, and that Britain will not join or prepare to join the euro in this parliament.

William Hague now has his feet firmly under the desk as Foreign Secretary, with David Lidington, his former parliamentary aide as minister of state for Europe, and while the Liberal Democrats are sure to have a moderating influence (their leader was formerly an MEP), Conservative hostility to the EU is already rearing its head.

UK influence within the EU is also likely to be emasculated as last year the Tories pulled out of the main centre-right political group, the European People's Party (EPP), because of its federalist ambitions, and joined the European Conservative and Reformists Group.

The mistake over leaving the EPP was not that the Tories are now tarred by association with some apparent extremists, notably from Latvia. The real problem is that a majority of EU heads of government, including Germany's Angela Merkel and France's Nicolas Sarkozy, as well as Jos Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, belong to the EPP. This group now holds regular meetings ahead of all EU summits. When it came to choosing a new president of the European Council last November, it was the EPP that pushed Belgium's prime minister, Herman Van Rompuy. Because of the Tory walk-out from the EPP (which infuriated Mrs Merkel, in particular), David Cameron would be excluded from such discussions.

Many senior Tories hope for a more harmonious relationship and, given the tempering effect of the Liberal Democrats and the long list of other problems that will face the new Conservative government, it is unlikely they will aim for major confrontation with our EU partners. However, the signs are the new intake of back-bench Tories will be bursting for a row over Europe.

Back in the years of Margaret Thatcher and John Major, the Tory party was divided on the subject, but now it is largely united – in Euroscepticism. According to a survey last July by the ConservativeHome website, more than 40 per cent of prospective Tory candidates favour either a "fundamental" renegotiation of Britain's EU membership or outright withdrawal.

The first back-bench rumblings have already begun from the Conservative Eurosceptics. Tory MP Douglas Carswell and some party colleagues are planning to take advantage of a minor technical change to the Lisbon Treaty, rebalancing the number of MEPs from each member state, to trigger a public vote on the treaty. This is a headache for Mr Cameron and a test of the unity of the Tories with the pro-Europe Lib Dems.

As in the past, a new Tory ministerial team may find it takes time to learn how to play this Brussels game and, although it may not aim for conflict, it may take time to educate its back-benchers on this. An uneasy time lies ahead, both between the UK and the EU, and between the two coalition partners.

• Alex Orr is a board member of the European Movement.