Leader: Clarity required on case for leaving UK

Nicola Sturgeon will today deliver perhaps her most important SNP conference speech as First Minister.

She will, yet again, rouse delegates in Aberdeen with the notion that independence is normal, inevitable, and just around the corner.

But once the applause has died down the answers to many key questions may well remain unclear.

If Supreme Court judges rule in Ms Sturgeon’s favour after a hearing this week, there will be a referendum in October next year. Many, however, believe the judgement is likely to go the other way.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon appearing on the BBC1 current affairs programme, Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg at the Aberdeen Art Gallery, in Aberdeen. Picture date: Sunday October 9, 2022. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS SNP. Photo credit should read: Russell Cheyne/PA Wire

It will be interesting to note how forcefully the First Minister repeats her assertion that, in the latter scenario, the next general election will be a “de facto” referendum.

This stance has come in for heavy criticism from both within and outwith her party. The next general election will be, as they all are, about a myriad of issues. For Ms Sturgeon to pin the hopes of her movement on the outcome is a high stakes gamble many within the SNP may regard as bordering on reckless.

Delegates will be denied the opportunity to debate the party's economic prospectus for independence as this is to be published later this week, after proceedings in Aberdeen have drawn to a close.

Critics will draw their own conclusions from the timing of this publication. But it is fair to say that, eight years after losing the indepedence referendum, the SNP has yet to present a convincing economic case for Scotland leaving the UK.

And without answers on key areas such as currency, pensions and the deficit, Scots cannot be expected to make an informed choice in a referendum on independence, “de facto” or otherwise.

Ms Sturgeon has at least provided some clarity on the question of who she would prefer to see in Downing Street – Liz Truss or Sir Keir Starmer. Contrary to consistent SNP messaging that Sir Keir’s party is equally as undesireable as the Conservatives, and in the face of polling showing a resurgence in Labour’s popularity, Ms Sturgeon was unambiguous: “I detest the Tories and everything they stand for.”

But voters must know what the SNP stands for, rather than simply against. Rallying the faithful for one more heave towards independence is one thing. Convincing the rest of the country is another entirely.