It is too early to say Holyrood election is a two-horse race
Everything is still all up for grabs in the Holyrood election
Reform UK has dominated the newspaper headlines and column inches this week.
Whether it was unveiling Malcolm Offord as Scottish leader (something we all knew already) or the coup of securing Robert Jenrick’s dramatic defection, Nigel Farage has certainly had a busy week.
And his confidence is buoyed - Mr Farage boldly claimed the May Scottish Parliament election is now a two-horse race between his own party and the SNP.
Where have we heard that one before? Ah yes, the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, which was won by (checks notes) Scottish Labour.
In fairness to Mr Farage here, five out of the last six polls in Scotland have suggested Reform UK will finish in second place in this election and form the official opposition in Holyrood. The party’s new Scottish leader has also not been shy about the fact he wants to be First Minister.
That is enough steady polling to be confident in this actually playing out at the ballot box.
However, a poll last week suggested they are in fact still tied neck-and-neck with Scottish Labour for second place. While Labour is still struggling to get back to their high of 2024, it does show the finishing positions are all still up for grabs.
The Survation poll last week showed the SNP is on course to remain the largest party in Scotland on 61 seats. This is short of the 65-seat majority John Swinney has his hopes set on, but nonetheless is a great turnaround for the nationalists after a dismal performance at the general election 18 months ago.
It also predicts Reform UK and Scottish Labour will win 18 seats apiece, with the other parties trailing behind on 12 seats for the Conservatives, 11 seats for the Lib Dems, and nine seats for the Greens.
I predict it will be a more exciting election result than in 2021. The winner is far from guaranteed and how many seats each party gets is unknown at this point.
The actual campaigning though might not be so entertaining. Each party seems content to either skip over policies completely or focus on shouting down their opponents.
One thing we can draw from the polling is Reform UK is disrupting Scottish politics.
A lot of that is to do with the scunner-factor. People are fed up with being let down by politics, and are happy to turn to the new populists on the scene despite not being able to offer any concrete promises.
As a result, all the news stories for Reform UK over the past seven days are unlikely to have much of an impact on voters. Mr Offord is not the household name the party thinks he is, and the infighting between the Conservatives at Westminster does not resonate with people.
The big problem Reform UK has is getting its supporters out the door on polling day and into a polling station. Those disillusioned with politics may also be very disillusioned with their ability to make a change.
Their second-place finish looks likely - but is certainly not in the bag for them yet.
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