Why Scottish Labour's hopes of ousting SNP depend on Keir Starmer

In an interview we publish today, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar admits, “as a former dentist”, that Keir Starmer’s government has had its “teething problems” since July’s election victory.

However, his good-humoured pun and refusal to blame his Westminster colleagues for Scottish Labour’s recent slump in the polls can’t hide the fact that his hopes of ousting the SNP from Holyrood have receded dramatically. A recent Norstat survey suggested the SNP would win 59 seats, with Labour on just 20.

Acknowledging that Labour had “work to do” to reverse this trend, Sarwar said: “I honestly believe that once we get the frame of the choice in 2026 and it’s clear the choice is between more of the same managed decline with the SNP or a new direction with Scottish Labour, I’m confident that’s an election that we can compete in but also win.”

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar needs Keir Starmer's help if he is to beat the SNP (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell) | Getty Images

Shocking NHS Scotland figures

Labour’s central pitch will be based on the need for reform of public services, coupled with a message that “the SNP has wrecked everything”, according to a party source. And many public services are in a shockingly bad state.

NHS figures revealing 10,869 Scottish patients had been on a waiting list for more than two years in September represented yet another sign of how badly the health service has been managed under the SNP, particularly when compared to the same figure for England. Largely a legacy of the Conservatives’ time in government, just 113 patients south of the Border had been waiting for more than two years.

However, Scottish Labour’s strategy is only going to work if their party colleagues at Westminster can show that they are making progress. If Labour is seen to fail, after the Conservatives failed before them, then voters who are on the fence about independence may start to think it’s worth the risk, particularly if Reform UK’s rise continues.

That said, Labour’s focus on public services may at least encourage other parties to do the same. And what is undoubtedly true is that Scotland desperately needs a government with a burning desire to fix its crumbling public services – before they collapse altogether.