Why Scottish Conservatives will be happy if Rishi Sunak doesn't come back to Scotland again – Adam Morris

Rishi Sunak’s allies believe the “tiniest path” exists for him to win the upcoming general election. It’s very narrow, flooded in places, obstructed by several fallen trees, the council hasn’t been called to clear it, and the water board is too busy between now and July 4 to drain the impassable puddles.

None of this matters to the Scottish Conservatives. They are fighting a mini-election of their own. They know the game’s up for their colleagues in Westminster, but there’s still plenty to gain up here.

The Prime Minister popped by the Highlands on Thursday, but you won’t see much of him again north of the Border, and that will suit Douglas Ross’s party just fine. They have six MPs to retain (three in the north, three in the south) and a few more seats in play.

After July 4, while the UK Conservatives hold the Sunak/Truss/Boris post-mortem, the Scottish party will be preparing for a serious challenge at the 2026 Scottish Parliament election (Picture: Stefan Rousseau/pool/AFP via Getty Images)

It will be a totally different battle than the one being fought by the party in England, across which it faces a trouncing. The tactic up here will be to completely ignore Westminster matters and instead focus on the SNP. The Scottish Conservatives can’t gain any seats from Labour, so they’ll be training their guns on the nationalists.

Although a UK Parliament election ought to be about “reserved” issues such as defence and immigration, this campaign will concentrate on the SNP’s myriad devolved failings. Expect attacks on the state of the NHS, the worryingly poor education system, and the anti-business agenda of the Scottish Government.

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In the north east, where the party hope to increase their representation, energy is the only topic in town. They will talk up the importance of oil and gas – vital for jobs and energy security – and urge caution on the numerous renewable energy projects planned for the countryside.

Two hundred miles south, across the belt of blue which straddles the English border, candidates will ignore the hymn sheets from London and instead talk about rural issues. In-between, there will be seats like Angus and Perthshire Glens, and East Renfrewshire where the personality and workrate of local candidates should get the party in contention. And, naturally, opposing independence and a second referendum will continue to be a cornerstone; it still resonates on the doorsteps.

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Yet a more important challenge for the Scottish Conservatives is the Holyrood vote in 2026. By then, a Labour administration will likely have been in place in Westminster for two years, meaning the Scottish Tories won’t have to worry about defending a UK Conservative government, a chore that has haunted them for more than a decade.

Given Scotland is the only part of the UK where the Conservatives have a chance of making gains, they are in a unique position. While the party down south pours over the Sunak/Truss/Boris post-mortem, in Edinburgh they can take a breath and prepare for an uninhibited tilt at the next Scottish Parliament elections.

So it’s clear the general election will be a difficult night for the Conservatives. There will be on-air squirming from Sunak loyalists, a queue of MPs packing up their belongings, and aggressive demands for an urgent change in direction. But don’t be surprised if, among the tears, the Scottish contingent appear on air with knowing smiles and a spring in their step.

Adam Morris is a former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives