Why Labour's political honeymoon will be unusually short even if they win a landslide

Some scepticism about opinion polls is usually advisable – our columnist Brian Wilson, suspicious of suggestions about SNP and Conservative “wipeouts”, even suggests ignoring them. However when someone like Chris Skidmore, a Conservative MP for 14 years and a minister under Boris Johnson, announces they are planning to vote Labour, it’s probably fair to say we can expect a change of government on July 5.

If the country wakes up to discover a smiling Rishi Sunak is still Prime Minister, it would be the political shock of the century and, like one colleague in India, pollsters might well burst into tears of shame for getting it so badly wrong. However, whether he’s elected on a landslide or not, Keir Starmer would do well to avoid spending too much time celebrating because his political honeymoon is likely to be unusually short.

On a visit to Whitburn, West Lothian, the Labour leader attacked the SNP for pushing independence as an issue, saying they were focusing on “the wrong priorities”, rather than the real one of improving the economy and creating jobs. “I would have thought it was the priority of the SNP but of course it isn't and that's because of their dismal record of failure in government. If their record was better they would be going into this election talking about their record, but they can't do that because it's so appalling,” he said.

Keir Starmer is all smiles on a visit to Whitburn but Labour faces a tough task in government (Picture: Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images)

Regular readers of The Scotsman will know that we share this assessment. However, unlike Labour, both the SNP and Conservatives have recent track records in government to attack. If Starmer and co win the election, they will start to develop their own and Labour may find itself in trouble unless the country’s fortunes improve.

Incumbent governments are under pressure the world over. Popularity ratings for the centrist President Emmanuel Macron in France and centre-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Germany are about the same as Sunak’s – terrible.

Starmer is not the most charismatic leader so will need to rely on his actual performance. Labour need to hit the ground running or voter disillusionment with mainstream politics, a deeply alarming trend, will only grow.