Why Donald Trump will see return of Richard Nixon's 'madman theory'

Has anyone in the UK watched one of Donald Trump's rallies in full? The answer is probably not – snippets, yes, and most likely the odd reel on social media. If you go straight to the source, Trump has brilliantly played the reality of legacy news reporting and social media consumption.

He knows you only get 15 seconds to make a point. The more extreme the soundbite, the more memorable it becomes. Trump's genius is passing off shocking remarks as risk-taking, anti-establishment realism.

His 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, is a blueprint for his political rise over the last decade: "The point is that if you are a little different, or a little outrageous, or if you do things that are bold or controversial, the press is going to write about you."

Even to his most ardent critics, Trump cannot appear as uninformed, coarse, and wholly without a strategy as he is routinely portrayed. The post-mortem of his first presidency confirms that there is a logic to the man's actions, particularly when stupefying foreign leaders into compliance.

The benefits of volatility

Beyond calling Trump a narcissist (which has become a little dated now), is there a name for his strategy? Yes, as it happens. 'Madman Theory' is based on the psychological assumption that decision-makers, particularly in authoritarian regimes, act on fear of the unknown.

When faced with an unpredictable and volatile opponent, they will likely choose caution over confrontation. This fear is particularly potent when the opponent possesses overwhelming military power, such as the United States during the Cold War.

Donald Trump's foreign policy strategy may be inspired by Richard Nixon's (Picture: Justin Lane) | Pool/Getty Images

President Richard Nixon and his national security advisor, Henry Kissinger, were famous subscribers to the approach. Nixon's team was determined to make communist leaders think he was dangerous and volatile to secure better terms of cooperation.

Nixon's chief of staff, HR Haldeman, wrote that Nixon had confided in him: "I call it the madman theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe we can't restrain him when he's angry – and he has his hand on the nuclear button."

‘Truthful hyperbole’

Trump is one of the best practitioners of what looks like reckless brinkmanship. Once again, he gave ample forewarning in his book: "That's why a little hyperbole never hurts. People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular. I call it truthful hyperbole. It's an innocent form of exaggeration, and a very effective form of promotion."

It is also a critical component of the Madman Theory. In October 1969, the Nixon administration hinted to the Soviet Union that "the madman was loose" when the US military was ordered to full global war readiness alert. American diplomats, especially Kissinger, likewise portrayed the 1970 American incursion into Cambodia as a symptom of Nixon's alleged instability.

Nixon instructed Kissinger during the Vietnam War to convey to the North Vietnamese that the US might escalate the war dramatically, possibly even to nuclear levels, if they did not negotiate seriously. The goal was to make the North believe that Nixon's decisions could be erratic and dangerous so they would be more inclined to come to the negotiating table.

Trump’s cultivated image

Trump's social media tirades and his public appearances are streams of consciousness meant to do precisely what has happened: everyone thinks he is capricious, imbalanced and psychotic. Kissinger believed that the United States needed to employ psychological tactics to break the will of its enemies, specifically the North Vietnamese government. Is it not credible Trump is doing the same 50 years later?

Compounding this is the sheer absence of accessibility. Nixon was aloof and socially awkward. So little is known of Trump, the man, beyond the cultivated visage of a business magnate and orange pastiche. If his supporters don't know more than that, then neither do America's enemies.

Machiavelli argued that sometimes it is "a very wise thing to simulate madness”. Trump is unrivalled at stoking bewilderment and panic. The reaction to both his election wins is something of a case in point, particularly when one considers the Republican trifecta of winning the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Presidency (that latter in both the popular vote and the Electoral College).

A risk-taking reactionary

International relations remain a diplomatic Wild West of law and power. During his presidency, Nixon's actions and statements reflected an intentional effort to cultivate this image of unpredictability in a world of hard power. Trump seems to be trying to do exactly that in the age of strongman leaders and their cults of personality.

Acknowledging Trump's strategy is not to condone it, but it helps to understand how he sees the world, particularly when dealing with Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong Un. Trump is a reactionary construct against globalisation, elites, and international politics as usual.

International relations are once more governed by the "great man theory”. That is not Trump's fault, and the seeds of strongman politics have been growing for decades. The post-Cold War "end of history" and the United States' sole superpower status was nothing more than a stopgap. Individual leaders can once more reshape the world for the better – or the worse.

Trump is not the first leader and certainly not the first US president to use unpredictability and brinkmanship. It is a risky, dangerous turn of nuclear roulette. But, in context, President John F Kennedy played a dangerous game in the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Trump may not be opposed to joining such a prestigious company.

As with Kennedy and Nixon, the only way to judge whether the returning, incoming president is successful, is by whether we are all here in four years.