What we can expect when Theresa May meets Nicola Sturgeon

First Minister meets Prime Minister Theresa May at Bute House. Picture: TSPL

Mrs May is visiting some UK-wide agencies to subtly highlight the benefit of the Union, stopping off at the Department for International Development’s office in East Kilbride before checking in with counter-terrorism police in Scotland.

As the Scotland on Sunday reported yesterday, the Prime Minister is set to boast that her Brexit deal would be so good that desire for independence in Scotland would be curtailed.

In just two days, Mrs May will inform the Council of Europe that the UK is going to leave the European Union, which starts a 24-month clock for the Conservative Government to thrash out a deal.

Nicola Sturgeon announcing a referendum - MSPs will clash again tomorrow on the plans

Nicola Sturgeon will make her own piece of constitutional history in advance of that as a vote on a new independence referendum – rearranged in the wake of the killings in London – will take place tomorrow.

With the two most powerful women in British politics set to meet, we look ahead as to what the outcome and aftermath of that sit-down could look like.

The Optics

The Prime Minister is a fan of austere settings – perhaps to match the economic policy of her Government, and one assumes that the Bute House backing will not be too much of a change.

Mrs May’s speech on how Britain will be ‘more’ united as a result of the Brexit deal she is negotiating took place with a simple lectern set-up.

She urged Scotland to play its part in the ‘great national challenge’ to make Britain a fairer place as a result of Brexit.

Nicola Sturgeon isn’t a fan of manipulating the optics as her predecessor was – Alex Salmond infamously had a map of the SNP’s election gains as he signed the Edinburgh agreement with David Cameron.

Ms Sturgeon will also be keen to avoid anything that looks like she and the Prime Minister are working too close together – so expect joint photo opportunities to be kept to a bare minimum.

The meeting

Most politicians speak largely in lofty platitudes, especially when dealing with the constitution, but it is expected that behind closed doors talks are much more practical.

There’s still an ocean of difference between the two women on politics, not least when it comes to a second referendum on independence.

Mrs May flexed her reserved-power muscles by announcing that she would block any move by Ms Sturgeon to have the powers to hold a new vote on separation before the terms of Brexit are agreed.

May touts Brexit deal '˜so good you won't need Indyref2'

Those terms remain increasingly unclear, with an appearance at a select committee by Tory Brexit Minister David Davis featuring a number of gasp-inducing revelations on the lack of research undertaken on what that deal with the other 27 nations of the EU should look like.

Nicola Sturgeon may press Theresa May for some kind of reassurance that behind the scenes the UK Government has more of a plan than Davis hinted at so far.

Briefing in advance has suggested that Mrs May will tell Ms Sturgeon that Scotland’s Government needs to ‘get on board’ more with Brexit, which Mrs May has been keen to paint as a golden opportunity, rather than the economic and social disaster many predict.

The Reasoning

In truth, however these meetings are rarely great meetings of minds, where deals are thrashed out and substantive policy is discussed.

Theresa May will want it to be noted that she came to Scotland in advance of both the vote to demand another referendum, and the announcement that Article 50 will be triggered.

The Scottish Government has raised serious concerns that they have been sidelined during the Brexit talks, most notably having to find out about the Article 50 date from BBC News.

Mrs May’s visit, symbolic though it may be, can be used by Conservative politicians to bat away the charge that the UK Government has treated Scotland’s other Government with disrespect.

Bigger fish to fry?

Mrs May has made it clear that she wants all four nations of the United Kingdom to come together to take on the national change that she claims Brexit is.

It is the type of statement we’ve come to expect from a Prime Minister who wanted to stay in the EU, but deliberately cast herself before, during, and after the 2016 referendum as a ‘reluctant’ remain voter.

But for all her lofty words about the more United Kingdom which she cast as an unstoppable force, Britain is arguably more divided than ever.

The second that the Prime Minister steps out of her meeting with Nicola Sturgeon, she walks almost literally from one potential constitutional crisis to another.

By 4pm today, it is expected that the failure of power-sharing talks in Northern Ireland will be officially announced.

That leaves Mrs May with the unenviable choice of calling another election for seats in the assembly, or initiating direct rule from London, the nuclear option in any attempt to put together a devolved administration at Stormont.

The Aftermath

The SNP has not exactly been subtle about using the visits of Conservative politicians as a recruiting tool.

Peter Murrell, the party’s Chief Executive and the husband of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, happily posted a picture of the SNP’s membership card machine ready to deal with an upsurge in Scots joining.

Nicola Sturgeon undoubtedly cast this visit from Theresa May as a meaningless nothing, and claim that her demands in the meeting fell on deaf ears.

No matter what happens, it is unlikely that the visit will halt the move for another referendum, or move much opinion either way in the independence debate.

Prime Minister Theresa May speaks forcefully and articulately on her desire to keep the Union intact – she may soon find out it will take more than words to keep it together.