US presidential election: With Donald Trump the hot favourite, Republicans' Iowa caucus adds to a mounting sense of dread – Christine Jardine

Iowa caucus will see the state pick its choice for the Republican nomination for US President, with Donald Trump the hot favourite

I may be a bit more tired and grumpy than usual on Tuesday morning after that middle-of-the-night Iowa caucus moment that political geeks like me look forward to every four years. The start of US presidential election season is of course always filled with possibilities, good and bad, for both our nations and beyond.

What impact will the leader of the free world for the next four years have on our economy, peace and stability and will he or she strengthen or undermine old alliances? But this year is particularly fraught with complications. While the opinion polls may at first glance make it look like a straight re-run of Biden vs Trump in 2020, there is a whole gamut of legal complications to run before we reach that point.

And if we do, we may not be looking at the hope-filled, future-focused elections of recent years. Where will be the likes of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris, looking to break conventions, make history and open democratic power to a new section of American society?

But whether it is ground-breaking, democratically affirming or just more of the same, the first steps towards the next presidential term will be taken tonight in Des Moines. At least for Republicans. The Democrats, after 50 years of putting Iowa first in their calendars, have reverted to a New Hampshire opener with all the smart, and even the not-so-smart, money on an easy Joe Biden win.

But for the Republicans, the road looks decidedly rockier, and if the sub-zero temperatures are anything to go by, potentially slippery. Trump, despite his legal difficulties and objectionable approach, is still the hot favourite for the nomination with the Red team and their Maga cheerleaders. So confident is he that he voluntarily spent the week before the primary in court.

And he didn’t even bother taking part in televised debates, preferring instead his own, less challenging, self-congratulatory ‘town hall’ style chats on Fox News. That gave the face-off between the others the look of a kind of World Cup third-place play-off. The also-rans vying for the right to step in if the courts rule that Trump’s involvement in the failed insurrection attempt three years ago should bar him from the ballot.

But what do we know about these ‘might-be’ challengers, one of whom – Chris Christie – pulled out even before the caucus? Well, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the faltering alternative to Trump, who has suffered a series of defeats in his war on woke which have undermined his appeal to the Republican base, while Nikki Haley is the former governor of South Carolina who was also the 29th US Ambassador to the United Nations. Neither is setting any heather alight.

But as the steamroller moves on to New Hampshire, they will hope that their continued assault on Trump’s absence from party meetings, events and general presence will be enough to give them some momentum as a challenger should he fall at one of his many legal hurdles. Meanwhile, this side of the pond, we must keep our fingers crossed like never before. Not for the first time, I find myself struggling to look towards that November election with more hope than dread.

Christine Jardine is the Scottish Liberal Democrat MP for Edinburgh West