US presidential election: Donald Trump looms large over Iowa caucus as campaigning begins in earnest – Henry McLeish

Iowa has a historic place in US presidential elections but its importance is overblown

Donald Trump looks set to see off rivals for the Republican party nomination like Ron DeSantis (Picture: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Tomorrow the Iowa caucuses will kick off the race for the White House. For more than 50 years, this small state has had a special place in the folklore of American politics, hosting the “lead-off voting” event for Democratic and Republican caucuses for the election of presidential nominees.

While the Democrats this time decided to break with tradition by going with New Hampshire first, on January 23, the Republicans’ Iowa caucuses will start six months of voting, culminating in the declaration of the party’s presidential nominee at their convention in Milwaukee, in mid-July.

The Hawkeye state lies between Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois and Wisconsin and attracts a huge amount of media coverage and political interest at a time when the US election is shaping up to become the most bitter, divisive and ugliest campaign in modern history. It may, however, only help to confirm the obvious: that the Republican nomination for 2024 is a forgone conclusion.

Before looking at the candidates, why does Iowa figure so prominently in the minds of pundits, pollsters and politicians? In this marathon election campaign, the state’s caucus will be the first opportunity for people to cast real votes and provide a judgment on the condition of America and their favoured Republican candidate.

But the criticism over the importance given to Iowa as the first state to have a “real poll” – a role it has played since 1972 – has not diminished. Despite efforts to persuade states to give up caucuses – described as “gatherings of neighbours” – and move to primaries, which are better organised, more democratic and less archaic, Iowa has refused.

Rivals refuse to attack Trump

For the candidates, the stakes are high. Securing that first endorsement and delivering a credible performance could provide a boost for the long slog ahead, but if things go badly they may face an early exit. This is particularly true for this year’s Republican rivals, as overshadowing everyone is the towering figure of Donald Trump who has built a seemingly unassailable lead in the polls.

One of the most reputable polling organisations in the US, called 538, found that in a poll in Iowa on January 9, Trump had 58 per cent of the vote, with Nikki Hayley on 15 per cent, Ron DeSantis 14 per cent, Vivek Ramaswamy ten per cent, and Asa Hutchison one per cent. Trump is polling more than all the other candidates combined! So the caucus may raise the possibility of Ramaswamy and Hutchison leaving the race, as Chris Christie did earlier in the week, by announcing the suspension of their campaigns.

Trump’s stranglehold on the Republican party is solid, but a number of other issues could grab the headlines. Will the remarkably lacklustre campaign of Florida governor Ron DeSantis be further damaged? Will Nikki Hayley, former US Ambassador to the United Nations, edge DeSantis into third place and boost her prospects for the New Hampshire primary, where the gap between her and Trump has narrowed to within ten per cent? Recent TV debates have seen DeSantis and Hayley trying to destroy each other, but more significant has been their refusal to attack Trump.

However, Iowa is not a microcosm of America and there is little doubt that its importance as the first test of public opinion is overblown. The New Hampshire primary will provide a better test of national public opinion, especially in relation to Hayley and DeSantis.

The fundamental criticisms of Iowa’s status are based on the place of caucuses in modern politics, and the cultural and political identity of this small rural state, which has a population of 3.1 million.

‘A crime against democracy’

The caucus comprises 1,681 precincts which meet in churches, libraries, community halls, schools and houses. Citizens vote by a show of hands or by breaking into groups after representatives make the case for each of the candidates. The purpose of the exercise is to appoint 41 delegates pledged to back candidates at the parties’ national conventions.

This looks like an exhaustive grassroots process, but it is an archaic and often chaotic procedure that can take hours and can be rowdy and raucous. There is also no secret balloting. One critic of the caucus said: “Iowa is a crime against democracy and ought to be done away with.”

While the problems with caucuses are important, it is the nature of Iowa itself that lends credibility to critics who say this is an unlikely bellwether and a poor indicator of the wider America. Described by some derisively as a “fly-over state”, Iowa is known for some of the world’s most fertile soils and is first in the country for the production of corn, oats, soya beans and cattle.

Criticisms of how representative it is revolve around its 90 per cent white population, its church-going values, especially the influence of evangelicals, its rural nature, and an older population: more white, more Christian and more conservative. A humorous piece in the Washington Post asked whether livestock were better represented in the US Senate than people, a reference to Iowa which has four million sheep, but only 3.5 million people!

Trump won the 2016 presidential election vote in Iowa with 51.1 per cent of the vote, but interestingly lost the earlier caucus vote to Senator Ted Cruz in a field of nine candidates. What is clear, is that a good performance by a candidate in Iowa creates momentum, and in a campaign costing billions of dollars, this is the best way of filling the coffers.

Iowa however may just confirm that the race is already over and Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. More alarmingly, he might become the 47th President of the United States.

Henry McLeish is a former First Minister of Scotland and a visiting professor at the University of South Florida