UK faces four potentially catastrophic threats this winter – leader comment

As the British Army prepares for a worst-case scenario in which the UK is beset by mutiple problems caused by coronavirus, winter flu, flooding and our departure from the EU, the UK Government must remove the chance of a no-deal Brexit.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the unveiling of the Conservative Party battlebus during the 2019 general election

Michel Barnier and David Frost probably have two of the most difficult jobs in the world. The former, as the European Union’s chief negotiator in the Brexit talks, must strike a trade deal that satisfies 27 different governments, while the latter, his UK counterpart, needs to win the approval of not just Boris Johnson and his Government but hardline Brexiteer MPs who will be up-in-arms at the slightest hint of compromise.

Both diplomats are now warning they may not be successful in their Herculean task. This could be interpreted in different ways but their remarks are, hopefully, a plea for sanity to prevail, for both sides to see the pressing need to put politics aside and cut a deal. Barnier said this currently looked “unlikely” and added that the “time for answers is quickly running out”, while Frost said that “big differences do remain” and the UK Government needed to “face the possibility” the talks may fail.

While the UK has already left the EU, the transition period means many of the economic benefits of membership remain until 31 December. This may give false comfort to some that Brexit itself was relatively painless and that the current recession is entirely a result of the coronavirus pandemic. But a Warwick University study has concluded that Scotland’s economy lost nearly £4 billion in 2018 as a result of just the Brexit vote.

If that’s the cost of our imminent departure, just imagine the catastrophe that could unfold if, rather than the ‘have our cake and eat it’ deal promised by Brexiteers, there turns out to be no deal at all.

Whatever Barnier and Frost’s remarks were intended to achieve, they should be treated as a rallying call to apply pressure to our politicians. The Scotsman has called for the transition period to be extended because of the coronavirus crisis and this remains the most sensible course of action. However, if this is no longer an option the talks simply must succeed.

In recent evidence to a House of Lords committee, Lieutenant General Douglas Chalmers, the Ministry of Defence’s head of military strategy, said the army was planning for the worst case scenario. “The [coronavirus] crisis is still very firmly with us, and definitely as we look towards the winter now, we know about the normal flu season... we’re obviously transitioning out of the EU, and we have our normal floods etc that come on.”

Unless we start reducing the multiple risks to this country, we may find ourselves in a winter of discontent like no other.

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