UK Covid Inquiry: Nicola Sturgeon's cross-examination could be the day her independence dream dies – John McLellan

The Covid inquiry is exposing Nicola Sturgeon’s reputation as a pandemic leader was a triumph of style over substance

If they were selling seats it would be a hotter ticket than Taylor Swift at Murrayfield, so all eyes will be on the bulletins from the EICC on Wedneday, when ex-First Minster Nicola Sturgeon faces a full day’s cross-examination by Jamie Dawson KC at the Covid Inquiry. The stage has been set by explosive revelations in messages between Ms Sturgeon and her closest adviser Liz Lloyd, and the equally damaging conversations between national clinical director Jason Leitch and then Health Secretary Humza Yousaf.

But, as when she appeared before Holyrood inquiry into the botched handling of complaints against Alex Salmond, she will be well prepared. Her lines will be straight: WhatsApp messaging, however colourful, was not a decision-making tool but a means to bounce ideas and thoughts off trusted colleagues at a time when contact was difficult; that deletion of social media messages was following policy, not a conspiracy against the public; that proper records were kept of official discussions… except we know they weren’t; I did my best, of course mistakes were made (I just can’t think of many, but maybe using WhatsApp was one...), it was uncharted territory for everyone. And, of course, my priority was always to save lives. Especially the children. As they used to say in Private Eye… takes out small onion.

Neither a political slugging match nor easy Festival hero worship, she will need to subdue her instinct for the dismissive sarcasm with which she swatted political inquisitors and suppress any feeling she might have that the Edinburgh Academy and Oxford-educated advocate is “not one of us”. Under oath, and unable to angrily sweep aside Mr Dawson’s probing, it will be a duel like none other she’s faced.

Former First Minster Nicola Sturgeon is due to be questioned by the UK Covid Inquiry about her handling of the pandemic (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

Cloying tributes from school children

Maybe there will be no new revelation, but enough has been unearthed for it to be a humbling experience, and a hefty dose of humility will not go amiss if she is to get through the day without further damage to her already shattered reputation. But, as at least one message showed, humility is not her strongest suit. "Comms is beyond awful,” she messaged Ms Lloyd, as Boris Johnson announced the second lockdown in October 2020. “We’re not perfect but we don’t get enough credit for how much better we are.”

Not getting enough credit? Her approval ratings were stratospheric, she was lauded in the south, and five months earlier, STV was embarrassed into taking down a video in which little school children read out a cloying tribute that “the children of Scotland would like to say thank you to Nicola, our First Minister. We are so grateful. Thank you for always keeping us safe, working so hard, being strong for us.” If that wasn’t enough credit, then it’s hard to think of anyone with a greater sense of entitlement than perhaps Donald Trump or, as was pointed out at the time, Kim Jong Un. “Thank you for caring for every individual life and for always thinking about the children of Scotland. Thank you, Nicola,” they trilled. As comedian Janey Godley might have said, if she wasn’t also a fully signed-up member of the Sturgeon fan club, it was enough to give even diehard nationalists the pure dry boak.

The testimonies of former Health Secretary Jeane Freeman, Ms Sturgeon’s former deputy John Swinney and ex-Finance Secretary Kate Forbes should shed new light on the internal tensions within the Scottish Government as the pandemic took hold. Mr Swinney will doubtless mount a loyal defence of the boss, but Ms Forbes might be much more forthcoming about disagreements over the way the emergency was handled.

Back then, the once-fabled SNP discipline was uncracked, and there were no hints of dissent, but when I helped negotiate a Scottish Government advertising investment package for Scottish news publishers as the pandemic crushed commercial markets in May 2020, it was made clear to me that Ms Forbes had “expended a lot of political capital” to secure the deal. We took that to mean it was not supported by Ms Sturgeon and Ms Forbes had put her head on a block, so given the talk of closing businesses revealed in Ms Lloyd’s WhatsApp messages, it was unlikely to be the only clash.

Labour ahead of SNP in new poll

Meanwhile, there are new allegations of forged signatures on documents found in the police investigation into the SNP’s finances, in which Ms Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell have been arrested and released without charge. I can’t help but feel some sympathy for poor Mr Yousaf, who can’t remember from one day to the next if he can find phone messages or not (and whose Health Secretary has similar amnesia about his iPad use), and who needs to get his party fit for a general election when barely a day goes by without a new allegation of failure, incompetence, obfuscation, evasion or corruption.

A Conservative-led debate in Holyrood on transparency in government will inevitably be a sideshow to the main event at the EICC, and an opportunity for SNP foot soldiers to indulge in some whitaboot Westminster deflection. But the problem, as reinforced by the weekend’s Norstat poll which put Labour three points ahead, is that independence supporters are turning their backs on the SNP in growing numbers, with 47 per cent backing independence but just 33 the SNP.

I have thought for some time the independence breakthrough opportunity was the next UK election, not this one, but the events of even just the past week cast serious doubt on the SNP’s ability to defend enough of its reputation, and support across the political spectrum, to mount that challenge. The Covid inquiry is exposing what pandemic data always showed, that the Sturgeon reputation was a triumph of style over substance, and for all the apparent insignificance of her swearing, it turns out it wasn’t particularly stylish either. Sturgeon’s day at the inquiry could also be the day the dream dies.