The public debate over net zero is finally opening up – and that's a good thing

Politicians fall into two camps: those who welcome discussion about net zero and those who don’t

We all make cost-benefit analyses every day, weighing up the pros and cons of a course of action or purchase. We ask “is it worth it?” and proceed accordingly. But this process was denied to the electorate for many years on what is easily one of the most important issues of our time: energy policy and the drive to net zero.

In 2008, the then Energy Secretary Ed Miliband oversaw the introduction of the Climate Change Act, which made the UK the first country in the world to put carbon emissions targets into law. This also led to the creation of the all-powerful Climate Change Committee, an unelected cabal of quangocrats who drive profoundly consequential government policies.

Two years later, in 2010, the Labour, Tory and Liberal Democrat leaders – Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg – issued a joint statement vowing to put aside party differences and work together to combat climate change, whatever the result of the looming general election, effectively absenting climate and energy policy from the democratic process.

At the time, there was no political downside to this. The economic and social costs of decarbonisation were out of sight. What sort of maniac would not like to see a cleaner world? Of course Cameron would fly to the Arctic to hug a husky.

Former Conservative Party leader David Cameron with husky dog Troika on the Scott-Turner glacier on the island of Svalbard, Norway | PA

Tory net-zero law

In 2015, the UK joined nearly 200 other countries in signing up to the Paris Agreement to cut emissions in order to try to limit global temperature rises to 2C above those of the late 19th Century.

Then, in 2019, Theresa May’s Conservative government amended the Climate Change Act to make Britain the first major economy to enshrine in law a commitment to reach net zero by 2050. This sailed through Parliament with minimum debate and without a vote by MPs. On each occasion, ordinary voters were not troubled for their views.

The current Labour administration won a landslide election victory with a manifesto that committed to decarbonising the Grid by 2030. But Sir Keir Starmer’s huge majority was hardly a ringing endorsement, achieved as it was with the backing of just 20 per cent of an electorate whose main concern was the eviction of the Tories.

The Reform UK party won more than four million votes on a package of pledges that included scrapping net zero. Perhaps even more votes would have gone their way were it not for the party’s policies in other areas. The cracks in the political consensus on climate policy were already plain to see before the election.

Rishi Sunak delivers a speech at Downing Street on his plans for net zero commitments in September 2023 | PA

Sunak strikes first blow

Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arguably dealt the first blow when, in September 2023, he announced plans to water down measures on boilers, electric vehicles and home insulation.

This month, Sunak’s successor Kemi Badenoch declared the 2050 target “impossible” to achieve and accused her predecessors of setting it without a plan that does not “bankrupt” Britain.

Critics have accused Badenoch of trying to steal Reform’s lunch but she expressed some scepticism about the feasibility of the 2050 target during the brief 2019 House of Commons debate. Whatever the case, politicians, like the rest of us, are allowed to change their views over time.

In a further blow to the once seemingly solid consensus, a leaked Whitehall assessment last week revealed fears among civil servants that the transition could wipe 10 per cent off economic growth by 2030 and trigger a financial crash.

Labour sounding less green

Here in Scotland, Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay last week backed Badenoch by suggesting that unrealistic targets should be revised. The response of First Minister John Swinney was perhaps predictable. The SNP leader said he read Findlay’s comments “in horror” and condemned the Tories’ suggestions as “ludicrous” and “utterly irresponsible”.

Labour, however, has been sounding notably less green of late, with both Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar voicing reassurances to the North Sea oil and gas sector in recent days.

Perhaps they sense growing reservations among those whom politicians like to describe as "ordinary people" - the normies, Joe Public. A link between soaring energy bills and the move away from fossil fuels is dawning on more householders and business owners.

Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch delivers a speech in January acknowledging mistakes made by her predecessors on issues including net zero | Getty Images

All share the same planet

Disillusionment may be festering in communities where jobs in heavy industry seem to have been sacrificed on the altar of decarbonisation. Adverse environmental effects of ever more wind and solar farms are also becoming apparent.

The offshoring of manufacturing reduces our CO2 emissions. But to then import goods we previously produced halfway across the world from countries with less stringent regulations than ours surely only increases global emissions, and we all share the same planet.

The UK is responsible for 0.8 per cent of global CO2 emissions. The economic pain and decline involved in bringing that figure towards zero would be futile while bigger countries continue to push global emissions ever higher.

Maybe there is a healthy appetite for a public debate that simply did not happen in 2015 or 2019 on these and so many related points. We know far more now than we did in 2008. People have perhaps been totting up the pros and cons of net zero 2050 in their own cost-benefit analyses and finding the cons are racking up.

The sun sets behind Burbo Bank wind farm and 'Another Place', an art installation by Anthony Gormley, at Crosby Beach on Merseyside | PA

A ‘vibe shift’ away from net zero

Ever more people may be coming to the view that the greater threat to their future and the futures of their children and grandchildren is not climate change but net zero-inspired policies. We have done the easier part of bringing down emissions by switching from coal to gas and offshoring much of our industry, but now the rubber is hitting the road and there is a lot more road to travel.

That is why we are now seeing what policy wonks might term a “vibe shift” – a backlash, or shifting of the so-called Overton Window – and politicians are only just starting to respond. They will fall into two camps: those who believe net zero is too important to put before voters, and those who believe it is too important not to.