The key lessons that UK progressives should take from Trump’s crushing election defeat – Alistair Carmichael
When Republicans tried to caricature them as wild-eyed extremists, the Democrats responded with humour and reason
Were you up for South Carolina? Staying up late on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, it was difficult to resist the temptation to draw parallels with British politics and our own “wave” election two years ago.
A big win can tempt leaders to be persuaded of their own genius while ignoring the underlying malaise – but Donald Trump’s crushing defeat in US midterms should instead be a warning to all governments, including here in the UK.
In 2024, Keir Starmer and his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, landed a massive Commons majority of 172 – but ignored the fact that it was won on an historically low share of the popular vote (33.7 per cent). Instead of taking people along with them, they marginalised their supporters and their backbenchers, and quickly lost the public’s trust. Two years later, they were done.
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The perils of impeachment
In their big win this week, the Democratic party benefited from the unpopularity of Trump and his Republicans. They have bought themselves some time to repair their standing in the eyes of the American voters – but they should remember that victory was won by talking about affordable healthcare and cost of living. Spending time on attempts at impeachment risks turning the debate back into Trump’s favourite topic – himself.
For progressive parties in the UK, there are things to learn from their American cousins. There is a new and exciting generation of talent emerging – from more mainstream politicians like Jon Ossoff in Georgia and James Talarico in Texas to others, like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani who are a little “spikier” in their approach. What they are demonstrating is that being a ‘liberal’ Democrat need no longer be a fast-track to electoral oblivion.
What mattered was that they met the voters where they were. When Republicans tried to caricature them as wild-eyed extremists, they responded with humour and reason – and then kept on talking about healthcare and the cost of living. They had the discipline not to get dragged off these subjects and into culture war battles.
Ossoff for president?
The question that now fascinates political geeks like me is, “what comes next?” In particular, what does this mean for the 2028 presidential race? Will the Republicans respond to the electoral shellacking they have just taken by changing course – or by doubling down?
When it comes to the Democrats, I should declare an interest. I have known Jon Ossoff since he was a staffer in Congress – almost 20 years ago. We have stayed in touch and it has been a privilege to watch him develop. He has the charisma and political intelligence that could take him one day to the Oval Office, whether in 2028 or later.
Ossoff, Talarico, El-Sayed and others have the chance to define the next generation of progressive politics – and to demonstrate its worth, by delivering for their citizens the change they campaigned on. That they approach this from different angles is a strength and not a weakness. Ideas get stronger when contested.
Either way it is just the start of a journey, not the final destination – and cheering though this week has been for British progressives, that is the lesson we should take away.
Alistair Carmichael is the Scottish Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland
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