Tha buaidh fhathast aig Ceit Fhoirbheis air an SNP, ‘s dh’fhaodadh iomairt ceannardais a bhith ann a dh’aithghearr

Dh’fhaodadh buaidh mhòr a bhith aig Ceit Fhoirbheis air pàrtaidh an SNP fhathast agus chan e a h-uile duine a bhios toilichte le sin. Smaoinich fhèin air Humza bhochd.

Thuirt Ceit Fhoirbheis g'eil ceistean ma choinnemh stiùireadh Humza Yousaf. (Dealbh: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

[English-language version below]

Chan eil e idir ro ghòrach smaoineachadh gum faic sinn ann an 2024 iomairt ceannardais ùr, can às dèidh droch Thaghadh Choitcheann no sgainneal maslach air choireigin eile. Cha chuireadh tu geall nach tachair a leithid agus tha fhios ma thachras sin gun tig coimhead a-rithist ri Ceit mar cheannard.

Ged a ghabh i ri toradh na bhòt ron seo gu modhail, ciallach, a’ tilleadh air ais gu na cùl-bheingean, tha i air dèanamh cinnteach nach eil i air a dhol a-mach à sealladh buileach.

Agus a-rèir an agallaimh a thug i dha BBC ALBA bho chionn ghoirid, cha chanadh tu nach eil a sùilean fhathast gu math glaiste air dreuchd a' cheannardais. Mar a chanas iad sa Bheurla, ‘s e tìde a dh’inneas.

Chaidh an còmhradh gu lèir a chumail sa Ghàidhlig agus le sin, cha do thog na meadhanan eile e, ach a-mach à iomadach rud gu math inntinneach, sheas dà nì a-mach: nam biodh an cothrom aice a-rithist, làimhsicheadh i na ceistean mu a creideamh ann an dòigh na b' fheàrr agus, ‘s dòcha nas smaoineachaile, thuirt i g’eil ceistean ma choinnemh stiùireadh Humza Yousaf.

‘S dòcha gun robh i nas fhosgailte sa Ghàidhlig na bhiodh i sa Bheurla, ach tha e follaiseach nuair a thig an t-àm son ceannard ùr fhaighinn gum bi sùilean gu leòr air Ceit.

Tha e ri fhaicinn fhathast dè dìreach a’ bhuaidh a bhios aig a seo aig àm an Taghaidh Choitcheann, ach tha raointean mòr de sgìrean dùthchail na h-Alba gu math mì-thoilichte leis mar a tha an SNP air a dhol làmh ri làimh leis na h-Uainich, gu buileach chun na h-ìre ‘s a tha iad.

Tha e follaiseach dha Humza agus dhan phàrtaidh gun robh iad airson mòr-chuid airson neo-eisimeileachd a ghlèidheadh airson Am Pàrlamaid a riaghladh. Ach, cha robh seo idir cho cudromach ‘s a bha iad dùil. Seall fhèin mar a tha an taic dhan SNP a’ crìonadh ach airson neo-eisimeileachd a’ fuireach a cheart cho làidir ’s a bha.

Tha Ceit Fhoirbheis air a dhèanamh soilleir gum faigh i cuidhteas dha na h-Uainich a’ chiad chothrom a bhios aice agus i a’ faicinn cho soilleir ’s a ghabhas an cron a tha na poileasaidhean aca air a dhèanamh, leis na Sgìrean Mara Fìor Ghlèidhteachais is gu leòr eile.

Bha là ann, agus chan eil cho fada sin bhuaithe, nuair a bha taic fharsaing aig an SNP; stèidhte gu mòr air an iomairt airson neo-eisimeileachd agus riaghladh comasach bho na stiùirichean. Ach, chan eil sin ann an-diugh.

Tha e follaiseach, leis na thuirt i, gu bheil co-dhiù leth-shùil aig Ceit gur i an tè a bu chòir a chur ceart; gum faigh i air taic a tharraing bho dhiofar phàirtean de dh’Alba aon uair eile agus an iomairt airson neo-eisimeileachd a chur air an rathad cheart.

‘S e an rud air am feum i meòrachadh, nuair a thig an t-àm, agus tha fhios gun tig, gu dè seòrsa pàrtaidh a bhios air fhàgail aice airson gabhail a-nall agus an gabh idir ath-bheòthachadh. Tha bliadhna inntinneach ri thighinn.

English-language version:

Kate Forbes’s shadow still looms large over the SNP, and in particular Humza Yousaf. It’s not inconceivable that in 2024 – say in the wake of a disastrous general election campaign, or another scandal of momentous proportions, neither of which you would comfortably discount – her leadership bid will be re-kindled. In truth, it’s never really gone away, though she has played the public role of dignified loser and retreated to the back benches.

But the ambition to lead the SNP to the promised land of independence, and to prove a capable leader, still burns bright, if a recent interview given to BBC Alba is anything to go by. It was conducted entirely in Gaelic, so was largely missed by the rest of the media, but otherwise it would have generated some spicy headlines: “I should have handled questions on my Christian faith better” and “Doubts surround the leadership of Humza, says Kate Forbes” could have been just two of the agenda-setting news lines from the interview.

Perhaps in Gaelic she was less guarded, felt more at home to be candid, but what it shows – and what many have suspected – is that, come the prospect of the SNP moving towards a new leader again, she will certainly be in the conversation. The party overall, reeling from the political reality of all governments coming to an undignified end, looks to be devoid of ideas, energy and personnel.

It remains to be seen in terms of electoral impact, of course, but large parts of rural Scotland are deeply unhappy that the SNP have so firmly hitched their wagon to a Green cabal whose leadership appears maddeningly detached from reality, even when their central cause (the environment) enjoys such widespread support.

It’s clear that, for Humza Yousaf and the SNP, the need to rule parliament with a pro-independence majority is paramount, but as the haemorrhaging of support from the SNP while independence remains steadfastly popular shows, this wasn’t really necessary. Doubtless they will say it’s about more than party politics. Aye, aye. Is that a festive pig with wings?

Just like the SNP, the Greens are quick to attack the electoral legitimacy of the Tory party in Scotland, part of the constant stream of demonisation which is rapidly turning people off. But ponder this: the Greens only have seven MSPs whereas the Tories have 31, yet the Greens have a huge say over public policy in many of the key areas that affect our day-to-day lives. There’s no hypocrisy quite like political sanctimony.

Forbes has made no secret of her desire to ditch the Greens at the first opportunity, largely due to the damage wrought by the highly protected marine areas plan, which would have devastated coastal communities, and the debilitating effect that the deposit return scheme would have had on small businesses. Not to mention, of course, the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, now proved to be legally unworkable.

The broad support that the SNP enjoyed for so long, built on the foundation of a passionate independence movement and cast-iron internal discipline, no longer exists. Many of their previous followers long for a return to the days of competent leadership and a party that truly welcomes different ideologies.

Kate Forbes’s ambition to be the person to return the party to its previous standing remains. The calculation she’ll have to weigh up, however, when that leadership opportunity rears its head again, which it surely will, is what kind of damaged party will be there for her to inherit.